cc: firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com, firstname.lastname@example.org, PeteratXYZxyztwind.demon.co.uk
date: Wed, 14 May 1997 09:55:49 +0100 (BST)
from: D Parker <deparkeratXYZxyzo.gov.uk>
subject: Re: UK climate trends
to: m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk (Mike Hulme)
To Mike Hulme Climatic Research Unit, Univ. East Anglia
Thank you for your message which adds momentum to our strategy of
enhancing and coordinating research into UK climatic change.
I am faxing to you a copy of the contract M/DOE/11/56 with
Westwind Services. Note that:
i). The analysis of the changes in frequency of atmospheric
circulation types affection the UK is only the opening stage. We are well
aware of your work in Internat. J. Climatol. 13, 655-663 (1993). However we
have made the input daily MSL pressure fields slightly more homogeneous by
making them consistent with the new monthly Global Mean Sea Level Pressure
GMSLP2.1 dataset developed by Tracy Basnett.
ii). Briony Horton is carrying out parallel analyses using the
Hadley centre model simulations.
There is considerable potential for overlap between your
deliverable (b) and the contract with Westwind Services. However, so much
work needs doing in this area, that, given thorough coordination through
the meeting you suggest, it should be possible for you, us and Westwind to
pursue complementary lines of research, with positive feedbacks between each.
Chris Folland would like to participate in the meeting which needs, therefore,
to be before July 4th as he goes to Melbourne on 5th. He suggests July 1st.
We are planning a meeting with Westwind on around June 18th: one outcome
of this will be a more focused report than the one you read, and we
could bring this to the meeting with you.
Another basic area for consideration is the database of UK
climate data. The Westwind project, and yours, need homogeneous long-term
temperature and precipitation data as prerequisites for success. Within
the Met. Office, the Observations Division (O-Div) has responsiblity for the
maintenance and optimization of the observing network and the archival and
accessibility of data and metadata. So there is a case for someone from
O-Div to be involved in the discussions. I will copy this message to
Eddie Spackman of O-Div for consideration.
Did you receive our request for the replacement OLR precipitation
Please ring me tomorrow (May 16th) so that we can agree the best words
for you to fax to DoE.
David 14 May 1997
David E Parker
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
> As you will know, we have a contract with the DoE looking at datasets, model
> validation and climate change detection. The next 2 years of this contract
> is nearly finalised (we had a meeting with Geoff and DoE a fortnight ago).
> One of the overlaps which came up was looking at UK climate trends (cf.
> Westwind services). DoE seem to want us to devote a little of our contract
> effort to these issues too (as specified in their invitation to tender - a
> single action tender so no-one else is competing!). When we met with Geoff,
> we weren't too sure what Peter Wright would be doing and I have now
> discovered Peter is in the States until the end of May (we have to move
> quicker than this, i.e., Thursday!). Geoff has sent me a March 1997 report
> from Peter in which he is looking at airflow types from Lamb, comparing them
> with the Jenkinson scheme, and in HADAM2 (by the way Phil and I had already
> done the first two parts of this a few years ago).
> The section of text below is what I am putting into our contract with DoE on
> this topic. We do not want to compete with Peter and clearly wish to
> address one or two different issues. It would be very sensible, we think,
> to have a meeting here later in the summer (maybe July with Peter, yourself,
> Briony, etc., and us) so we can maximise our efforts here.
> In the meantime could you cast you eye over the text below and let me know
> of any things
> that I should or should not be saying at this point to DoE? I am in London
> tomorrow - Wednesday - at an IJC Board Meeting, but need to finalise things
> here on Thursday and fax them down to DoE.
> Your thoughts on this most welcome. If you care to talk with someone
> tomorrow, then Phil knows the background and you could discuss it with him.
> Work Package 5: Trends in the UK Climate and Detection of UK Climate Change
> [6 person months; 1MH; 5TO; ca. =A321k]
> Until now, detection studies have focused on trends in global climate or in
> the geographic (Santer et al., 1996) and vertical patterns (Tett et al.,
> 1996) of temperature change in the atmosphere. While these approaches
> remain the most likely to result in significant detection outcomes, at a
> regional scale there is increasing interest in whether observed trends in
> climate can be a) detected, and b) attributed to human agency. This is
> particularly true with regard to the UK, the climate of which has warmed
> over recent decades and which has superficially experienced changes in other
> climate variables. In this work package we will work in conjunction with
> the Hadley Centre and Westwind Services to supplement on-going work into UK
> climate trends. In particular, we will establish -with the Commercial
> Services of the Met. Office - the homogenous England and Wales Precipitation
> record (Jones & Conway, 1997) on a real-time basis to improve monitoring of
> precipitation related anomalies in the UK. We will also extend our work
> into airflow types and surface weather anomalies in the UK, looking at
> trends in these relationships, links to the NAO, and also the extent to
> which any trends can be found in climate model simulations. We will also
> undertake some exploratory work into the feasibility of determining from
> observed datasets changes in the ratio of frontal and convective
> precipitation in recent decades. Many model simulations suggest that this
> ratio should move in favour of convective precipitation as a result of
> anthropogenic climate change (Osborn, 1997).
> A meeting will be arranged during the 1997 summer with Westwind Services and
> the Hadley Centre to co-ordinate this work.
> a. Establish, with Commercial Services, the real-time update of the
> homogenised England and Wales Precipitation record (in a similar way to that
> done for the Central England Temperature Record).
> b. An analysis of airflow-climate relationships in the UK (including links
> with the NAO) and a comparison with trends simulated by HADCM2, HADCM3 and
> the Regional Model.
> c. An exploration of the feasibility of determining from observations
> changes in the mix of frontal and convective precipitation.
> Dr Mike Hulme tel: +44 1603 593162
> Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784
> School of Environmental Sciences email: m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/
> Norwich NR4 7TJ