date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 15:43:16 +0100
from: "Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)" <kathryn.humphreyatXYZxyzRA.GSI.GOV.UK>
subject: UKCIP08 launch delay
to: "Ag Stevens" <a.stephensatXYZxyzac.uk>, "Anna Steynor" <anna.steynoratXYZxyzip.org.uk>, "Bryan Lawrence" <b.n.lawrenceatXYZxyzac.uk>, "Butt, Adrian (CEOSA)" <adrian.buttatXYZxyzRA.GSI.GOV.UK>, "Chris Kilsby" <c.g.kilsbyatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Colin Harpham" <c.harphamatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "David Sexton" <david.sextonatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, "Geoff Jenkins" <geoff.jenkinsatXYZxyzoffice.com>, "Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)" <kathryn.humphreyatXYZxyzRA.GSI.GOV.UK>, "Jason Lowe" <jason.loweatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, "Kevin Marsh" <k.marshatXYZxyzac.uk>, "Mark Elkington" <mark.elkingtonatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, "Paul Bowyer" <Paul.BowyeratXYZxyzip.org.uk>, "Phil James" <philip.jamesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Richard Westaway" <richard.westawayatXYZxyzip.org.uk>, "Roger Street" <roger.streetatXYZxyzip.org.uk>, "Sarah Callaghan" <S.A.CallaghanatXYZxyzac.uk>
MOHC have found a problem through their sensitivity testing with the calculation of the
discrepancy term in that it is throwing out odd results for winter mean temperature in
Scotland, proportion of dry days in Scotland and specific humidity. They have suggested
to us that the best option for dealing with this is to try out another method of
calculating the discrepancy which they believe will work better, and if it does, this will
involve re-doing all of the PDFs given that the same discrepancy calculation is used across
the board. Defra have agreed that this seems to be the most sensible approach, which will
inevitably lead to a delay in the launch.
Next steps therefore involve:
- Me and MOHC coming up with a line to give out on the reason for the delay that we
can all give out to people. Geoff is going to help me write this. This line will need to
go the Ministers, then the steering group, then out more widely, so for now please don't
pass on that the launch is delayed to anyone, before we have a standard line to give out.
If you have to, just pretend it's still 20^th November for now! We should have a line by
tomorrow and let Ministers know a day or so afterwards so should be able to let the SG know
- I need an updated project plan from all of you combined to start to think about a
new launch date. I have suggested February to colleagues here to test the water and there
haven't been huge cries of woe, but I need to know what you think is sensible first and we
also want to wait to see the first results of MOHC's re-analysis before agreeing a new
launch date. The sooner I can get a revised project plan the better.
- We need to decide if we want to call the project UKCIP09. Thoughts?
- Colleagues here are keen to now incorporate a peer review as we are not tied to the
November launch deadline. Geoff and I have discussed ways of doing this before, which
basically involve sending the methodology out to a few key experts and asking for comments
within a 4 week period or so.
- I need to check who is waiting for the data to inform research or policy so that we
can deal with their needs. If you know of any projects that are waiting for the data
please let me know.
That's a bit of a brain dump, but please ring me to discuss if you have any further queries
especially about what work you should now be doing given that the PDFs are likely to
change. I'll forward another email shortly with MOHC's suggested timing for re-doing the
PDFs to help you plan your own timings.
Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Team, Defra
Zone 3F Ergon House, Horseferry Road, London, SW1P 3JR
tel 0207 238 3362 fax 0207 238 3341
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra)
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