Thursday, May 3, 2012

3761.txt

cc: carter,dokken,m.new
date: Tue Aug 10 15:16:19 1999
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: precip. trends
to: karl

Tom,

Dave Dokken (WGII TSU) recently inserted a plot into a climate scenario document for WGII of the IPCC TAR (Carter and Hulme) showing trends (mm/century) in annual precip. 1900-1998. This is cited as updated from Eischeid et al (1995), adapted from Karl (1998). It looks a little like the plot in the IPCC 1998 regional impacts report, except that one was in %/century.

Some of the mm/century trends in the 'Dokken' plot seem rather hard to believe, e.g. UK getting wetter by 100-300 mm/century if I read it right!! Real trends in UK annual precip. are close to zero. Also some Sahel drying trends seem too large in mm terms. I wonder whether you and/or Dave can check the provenance of this Figure? It has been circulated to WGII LAs. Maybe the units are wrong or something - the Figure caption says %/century, but the plot title sawy mm/century.

Thanks,

Mike

p.s. Tom - Mark New and I were wondering about the status of our Part II manuscript revised and re-submitted to J.Climate in May? It seems we have not heard about it and wanted to make sure it is still chugging its way through the system. Thanks.

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