date: Mon May 22 11:42:08 2000
from: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: UKCIP
to: "Jenkins, Geoff" <gjjenkinsatXYZxyzo.gov.uk>
Sounds good. A couple of other things come immediately to mind:
- we would like to do some drought indicators, more thoroughly than last time, using some indicator like length of dry spells or a Palmer Drought Index;
- we now have 6 SRES emissions scenarios, compared to the draft 4 (in the final SRES report, A1 has three variants). We would intend to present some scaled results for all six, although the greatest detail will be A2 and B2.
- it will necessary to have stronger statements on THC and WAIS collapse given the interest from last time. For WAIS there is the DETR-commissioned expert review study; will there be new stuff from HadCM3 re. THC ready within 12 months time?
We are still waiting for the contract to come through.
At 14:25 19/05/00 +0100, you wrote:
>We have been thinking about the analysis of the UKCIP RCM runs, and what
>might go into the next UKCIP report, in addition to the standard plots and
>tables. We intend here to concentrate on the two areas we have already done
>a fair amount on, ie predictions of changes in winds/storms, storm surges
>and ppn. It is in these areas that the improvements resulting from not only
>use of the RCM but also the intermediate AGCM are likely to be felt most.
>Jason will look at changes in storm surges with meteorology and SLR - the
>SLR to be as calculated by the coupled GCM for A2 and B2, and as derived by
>you for other SRES and other climate sensitivities. As soon at the RCM
>ensembles are ready, we would use the first 6 months of 2001 to do an
>analysis of this, so that text and diagrams can be produced in time to go
>into the UKCIP2001 booklet/CD.
>Head, Climate Prediction Programme
>Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
>The Met. Office
>BRACKNELL RG12 2SZ
>Tel: +44 (0) 1344 85 6653
>Fax: +44 (0) 1344 85 4898