Thursday, May 3, 2012


cc: D�ith� Stone <>, Phil Jones <>, Gabi Hegerl <>, Peter Stott <>, Toru Nozawa <>, Alexey Karpechko <>, Michael Wehner <>
date: Wed, 7 Jan 2009 10:01:17 +0200 (SAST)
from: D�ith� Stone <>
subject: Re: Fwd: Information for reviewing Nature Geoscience manuscript
to: Nathan Gillett <>

Hi Nathan and co.,

So they went ahead and submitted. I see three main comments on this:

- Your one about how it is unsurprising that weather indices provide extra
information. I note that they seem to have judiciously chosen
coefficients in d and e (not f and g though) that give the best result:
in fact they admit doing so.
- Perhaps most importantly, Mariani et alii do not address the question of
whether something is affecting the weather indices. This could be NAT and
ANT forcing. Or it could be Arctic temperatures, because their
correlation does not demonstrate causation (I assume they would claim that
climate models (e.g. barotropic) demostrate the direction, but they're
claiming we should ditch the climate models.) Neither c, d, nor e
preclude a and b.
- What model for significance testing are they using? They say that
ALL_mean's r^2 is significant at the 10% level, but then dismiss it by
saying that they don't actually believe their statistical model. Ours
implicitly takes account of such possibilities as encapsulated in N years
of dynamic climate model simulations.

Other notes:
- Why shouldn't five year means give a realistic picture of variability?
They use five year means anyway, so I can only assume they are okay with
- The relevance of our study is of course skewed toward areas with or near
to stations. This is an issue in terms of interpreting "temperature
variations" as "total polar warming". So if your interest is in uniformly
spatially averaged temperature then there may be an issue. For the Arctic
though, most people live in and care about the well sampled bits (no cares
about the North Pole) so the spatial bias is in effect a perfectly
plausible population/GDP weighting. For Antarctica this is a bit of a
stretch. But as we state in the paper we are attributing "changes" in
polar temperatures, and then assuming that this lets us interpet "changes"
as "warming".

Welcome to 2009!

On Tue, 6 Jan 2009, Nathan Gillett wrote:

> Hi all,Mariani et al. went ahead and submitted their response to Nature
> Geoscience, so we've now been asked to formulate a response to the paper
> (up to 500 words, no figures) by Jan 15th. I attach a PDF of the Mariani
> et al. paper, and a response which I have quickly drafted. I doubt
> whether this will get far with the referees, but we should make sure we
> properly address all the points raised. Comments or suggestions would be
> welcome.
> All the best for the New Year,
> Nathan
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: <>
> Date: 2009/1/5
> Subject: Information for reviewing Nature Geoscience manuscript
> NGS-2008-12-01244
> To:
> Dear Nathan,
> The enclosed manuscript entitled "POLAR WARMING ATTRIBUTION STILL
> PREMATURE" has been submitted to our Correspondence section as a comment
> on your recent paper published in Nature Geoscience. Before proceeding
> further, we would like to offer you the opportunity to respond to the
> letter.
> The authors have attached your point-by-point response to their concerns,
> but we would prefer to send a stand-alone response to our referees.
> Please could you make your response as brief as you can, and refrain as
> far as possible from reiterating points already made in your paper? (The
> response should be under 500 words in length and must not contain new
> data, or any figures or tables.)
> When we receive your response it is possible that we shall send the
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> To access the manuscript, instructions and review form, please click on
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> [see attached file]
> From there, simply follow the link to manuscript number
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