Friday, May 4, 2012


date: Fri May 20 12:53:40 2005
from: Phil Jones <>
subject: Re: Latest MSU results
to: "Thomas C Peterson" <>

Thanks for the update. Heard much the same from Ben and Chris who were at the
HC from Wednesday. Jim Hurrell also said that Roy deserves a lot of credit. Will
make the section in Ch 3 a lot easier.
Your last sentence is highly amusing !
At 19:07 18/05/2005, you wrote:

Hi, Phil,
I just thought I'd send my CCSP trip report on to you too as it discusses the latest
developments in MSU VTT matters that I'm sure you will be addressing in IPCC.
Unfortunately, some of the papers being submitted on these matters are to Science so
they are embargoed until published. I didn't describe Ben's work (with Tom Wigley). It
looked at the relationship between sfc, lower trop and upper tropospheric temperatures
in over 40 models and found out that the UAH lower trop was out of the model range.
Trip Report: Chicago, May 16-17, 2005
CCSP Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere Lead Authors Meeting
In this meeting we decided how to address the numerous official NRC review comments. It
led to many good plans and, fortunately, only a moderate amount of additional work for
me to do. But the important part, the reason Im sending out a trip report more widely,
was the reports on new research by Ben Santer, Carl Mears, Qiang Fu (presented by Dian
Seidel) and Steve Sherwood (briefly described by John Lanzante). As an upshot, the
report will be changed to:
Use the Fu data for tropospheric temperatures as we agreed that his new work is more
reliable than his initial derivation and better represents what is going on in the
troposphere than MSU 2 alone does. Fu applies a mathematical weighting formula to
remove the stratospheric component from the MSU 2s mostly tropospheric temperatures. As
the stratosphere is cooling, Fus adjustment shows the troposphere warming more than MSU
2 alone would indicate.
RSS has developed a new lower tropospheric temperature data set that shows considerable
warming. In the process of comparing their work with UAHs effort, they found what
appears to be an error in the UAH lower tropospheric temperatures.
John Christy and Roy Spencer, after listening to Carl and digesting his comments, agreed
that it is quite likely that an error is in their lower tropospheric temperature
formula. John estimates that in the tropics this will change the trend from (if I
recall correctly) 0.0 K/decade to 0.1 K/decade. This is a giant step forward in
reconciling vertical temperature trends. And I must say that the way they reacted to
this news and the plans they drew up to address it reflects very well on their character
and scientific integrity.
Also, John Lanzante talked about some recent work by Steve Sherwood that uncovers what
may be an inherent cold bias in daytime radiosondes.
The meeting ended with Roger Pielke, Sr. arguing with Tom Karl about the goal for VTT
synthesis report.
Tom Peterson
Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D.
Climate Analysis Branch
National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801
Voice: +1-828-271-4287
Fax: +1-828-271-4328

Thomas C. Peterson, Ph.D.
Climate Analysis Branch
National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801
Voice: +1-828-271-4287
Fax: +1-828-271-4328

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email

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