Sunday, May 6, 2012


cc: Keith Briffa <>
date: Fri, 3 Feb 2006 18:54:37 +0100
from: Eystein Jansen <>
subject: Few remaining comments
to: Fortunat Joos <>

Dear Fortunat, could you quickly address the comments i Keith�s section?


>can you also check that Fortunat is addressing
>the few comments (ie revising the text) that
>relate to his bit of my section and Henry
>Pollack is helping us to asses the comments and
>revise the text to do with the Ground Surface
>Temperature section. I presume Ricardo and Peck
>are dealing with all the regional stuff. Thanks
>At 17:32 03/02/2006, you wrote:
>>I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times.
>>>thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel .
>>>At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>>>Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new
>>>>figure is quite compelling, and a nice
>>>>complement to the other two panels. I agree
>>>>it would be good to get the Northern Hem
>>>>Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him
>>>>well enough to ask? (I never even met him,
>>>>but could ask if you don't know him).
>>>>What you have created will take some good
>>>>work on the caption to explain, but it has my
>>>>What is your plan for dealing with the new
>>>>German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are
>>>>you sure these runs can't be worked in,
>>>>perhaps as a new panel? At least we have
>>>>Susan's support for the new runs, so we do
>>>>what we have to do.
>>>>As for work and time, we are running out.
>>>>Just do the best you can, and hopefully the
>>>>new section will emerge sometime next week.
>>>>Highest priority (please do first) - we need
>>>>3 TS-contender figures (and captions) by
>>>>early next week:
>>>>1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption
>>>>2) the fig you've attached to this email -
>>>>with caption (were we going to try to put all
>>>>the model runs/refs/color key into a table,
>>>>so the caption could be shorter than in the
>>>>FOD? Think this would be better, so caption
>>>>is shorter)
>>>>3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model
>>>>runs (update of the fig we showed for first
>>>>time in ChCh - using a version of the lower
>>>>panel you attached to this email - with
>>>>There is little doubt you guys have the
>>>>hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and
>>>>possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work
>>>>will have huge impact, and the extra effort
>>>>is really appreciated well beyond me and
>>>>Eystein. I wish we could offer up a time
>>>>machine to make it easier, but... just keep
>>>>thanks! Peck
>>>>>Peck and Eystein
>>>>>we are having trouble to express the real
>>>>>message of the reconstructions - being
>>>>>scientifically sound in representing
>>>>>uncertainty , while still getting the crux
>>>>>of the information across clearly. It is not
>>>>>right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing
>>>>>this merely in an arbitrary way (and as a
>>>>>total range as before) allows the
>>>>>uncertainty to swamp the magnitude of the
>>>>>changes through time . We have settled on
>>>>>this version (attached) of the Figure which
>>>>>we hoe you will agree gets the message over
>>>>>but with the rigor required for such an
>>>>>important document.
>>>>>We have added a box to show the "probability
>>>>>surface" for the most likely estimate of
>>>>>past temperatures based on all published
>>>>>data. By overlapping all reconstructions and
>>>>>giving a score of 2 to all areas within the
>>>>>1 standard error range of the estimates for
>>>>>each reconstruction , and a score of 1 for
>>>>>the area between 1 and 2 standard errors,
>>>>>you build up a composite picture of the most
>>>>>likely or "concensus" path that
>>>>>temperatures took over the last 1200 years
>>>>>(note - now with a linear time axis). This
>>>>>still shows the outlier ranges , preserving
>>>>>all the information, but you see the central
>>>>>most likely area well , and the comparison
>>>>>of past and recent temperature levels is not
>>>>>as influenced by the outlier estimates. What
>>>>>do you think? We have experimented with
>>>>>different versions of the shading and this
>>>>>one shows up quite well - but we may have
>>>>>to use some all grey version as the
>>>>>background to the overlay of the model
>>>>>We have also experimented with changing the
>>>>>normalisation base for the
>>>>>model/reconstruction Figure , but using the
>>>>>same short modern period as for the first
>>>>>Figure is not satisfactory - more on this
>>>>>later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as
>>>>>many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL
>>>>>curve - can you get the separate North and
>>>>>Southern Hemisphere curves (with
>>>>>uncertainty) . I do not see that the new
>>>>>model runs from Germany/Switzerland will fit
>>>>>easily in the existing Figure and need to be
>>>>>separate! I am really struggling with the
>>>>>text also - really need more time!!!! More
>>>>>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version
>>>>>>Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000
>>>>>>To: Keith Briffa <>
>>>>>>From: Tim Osborn <>
>>>>>>Subject: new fig
>>>>>>Dr Timothy J Osborn
>>>>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>>>>School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
>>>>>>Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
>>>>>>phone: +44 1603 592089
>>>>>>fax: +44 1603 507784
>>>>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>>>University of East Anglia
>>>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>>>>Attachment converted: Macintosh
>>>>>HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /�IC�)
>>>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>>>University of Arizona
>>>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>University of East Anglia
>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>Eystein Jansen
>>Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
>>Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
>>All�gaten 55
>>N-5007 Bergen
>>Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661
>>Fax: +47-55-584330
>Professor Keith Briffa,
>Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>Fax: +44-1603-507784

Eystein Jansen
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and
Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen
All�gaten 55
N-5007 Bergen
Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661
Fax: +47-55-584330

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