Monday, May 7, 2012

3927.txt

date: Thu, 21 Aug 2008 08:28:06 +1000
from: Janice Lough <j.loughatXYZxyzs.gov.au>
subject: RE: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper
to: "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

Hi Phil

Yes, probably being a bit picky.............Have added "at some coral sites" in the following sentence where Gavin had "where?". There isn't enough space (nor do I think it necessary) to detail which sites are more/less effected - the main point is (as demonstrated by the coral vs inst. SST trends in the next sentence) that this mixed signal is an important source of uncertainty in obtaining a pure SST signal in coral oxygen isotope records.

"For example, δ18O records can overestimate 20th century SST warming if the coral record is considered only as a temperature record and the standard temperature dependence relationship of about -0.2 � 18O /°C is appllied, as regional freshening at some coral sites has likely contributed to coral 18O trends."

Hope this helps,

Janice

Janice M. Lough
Principal Research Scientist
Australian Institute of Marine Science
PMB 3, Townsville MC
Queensland 4810
Australia

email: j.loughatXYZxyzs.gov.au
Tel: (07) 47 534248
Fax: (07) 47 725852
-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: Wednesday, 20 August 2008 17:40 PM
To: Janice Lough
Subject: Fwd: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper

Janice,
I'll incorporate most of Gavin's comments.
I also have just received a couple
from Sandy.
Can you define this regional freshening a bit? This is in section 2.2.3.

Gavin could be being picky, but have a quick look.

Cheers
Phil

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>Subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper
>From: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>
>To: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
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>
>Phil, here are some edits - mostly language, a couple of bits of logic,
>an attempt to soothe Mike on the borehole bit, and a paragraph for
>consideration in the Appendix. Two questions require a little thinking -
>the reference to 'regional freshening' on the coral section needs to be
>more specific - I doubt it is a global phenomena, second there is an 'in
>prep' reference to some new work by van Ommen - I don't think this is
>appropriate and should either be removed and put as a personal
>communication.
>
>Having looked over the tropical trees section, I think that's fine.
>
>The fig A1 does need labelling though.
>
>Gavin
>
>On Tue, 2008-08-19 at 09:11, Phil Jones wrote:
> > Mike,
> > Peck didn't do the speleothem bit either.
> > Cheers
> > Phil
> >
> > Mike,
> > Have your text in - just need to read the borehole section again.
> > Noted your comment re the final Appendix figure. Will look at more
> > when Tim back.
> > Peck's bit is 2.5 and the terrestrial part of 2.6 - except for the
> > borehole text.
> >
> > Next time I co-ordinate anything I'll get the GB cycling coach
> > involved. We've just one our 7th gold medal on two wheels. Only
> > one short of Phelps.
> >
> > Cheers
> > Phil
> >
> >
> > At 13:52 19/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:
> > > thanks Phil--which part is Peck's? I'd like to read it over
> > > carefully,
> > >
> > > mike
> > >
> > > Phil Jones wrote:
> > > > Mike, Gavin,
> > > > On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of
> > > > the annual CET record
> > > > were omitted from the smoothed plot. Tim's away, but when he did
> > > > this with
> > > > them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The
> > > > purpose of the piece
> > > > was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same.
> > > > It wasn't
> > > > to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the
> > > > red/blue lines,
> > > > as they are crap anyway.
> > > > The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in
> > > > the IPCC
> > > > diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully
> > > > back in or
> > > > dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes
> > > > quite
> > > > a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is
> > > > that CET
> > > > has been so warm the last 20 years or so.
> > > > Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the
> > > > summer is
> > > > lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year.
> > > > Warmth
> > > > in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds
> > > > when it comes to warming.
> > > >
> > > > Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been
> > > > written
> > > > by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I
> > > > will
> > > > mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff.
> > > >
> > > > Cheers
> > > > Phil
> > > >
> > > > At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:
> > > > > Hi Phil,
> > > > >
> > > > > traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over.
> > > > > only 2 substantial comments:
> > > > >
> > > > > 1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3
> > > > > (bottom of page 52/page 53), but the lack of acknowledgement
> > > > > here in this key summary that we actually introduced the idea of
> > > > > 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling.
> > > > > the end of the first sentence:
> > > > > e.g., Zorita and González-Rouco, 2002, Küttel et al., 2007),
> > > > > should be changed to:
> > > > > e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and González-Rouco,
> > > > > 2002, Rutherford et al, 2003; Küttel et al., 2007),
> > > > >
> > > > > 2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the
> > > > > description of smoothing in Appendix A Figure 1. It sounds like
> > > > > the last 12 years were removed from the end of the series? If
> > > > > so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past
> > > > > decade that takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would
> > > > > suggest one of two alternative approaches:
> > > > > a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I
> > > > > don't see any objective justification for doing that) or
> > > > > b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how
> > > > > the most recent values compare w/ the MWP peak.
> > > > >
> > > > > By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press
> > > > > in GRL, I've attached. Please don't distribute or cite prior to
> > > > > publication (which should be one or two weeks from now).
> > > > >
> > > > > thanks,
> > > > >
> > > > > mike
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > Phil Jones wrote:
> > > > > > Dear All,
> > > > > > Here's the revised version of the paper, together with
> > > > > > the responses to the reviewers.
> > > > > > We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him
> > > > > > by the beginning
> > > > > > of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next
> > > > > > Monday is a national
> > > > > > holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look
> > > > > > through your
> > > > > > parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week
> > > > > > or over the
> > > > > > weekend?
> > > > > > Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and
> > > > > > let me know of
> > > > > > any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I
> > > > > > think just look
> > > > > > wrong?
> > > > > > I hope you'll think of this as an improvement.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Cheers
> > > > > > Phil
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Prof. Phil Jones
> > > > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> > > > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> > > > > > University of East Anglia
> > > > > > Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> > > > > > NR4 7TJ
> > > > > > UK
> > > > > >
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > --
> > > > > Michael E. Mann
> > > > > Associate Professor
> > > > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
> > > > >
> > > > > Department of
> > > > > Meteorology
> > > > > Phone: (814) 863-4075
> > > > > 503 Walker
> > > > > Building
> > > > > FAX: (814) 865-3663
> > > > > The Pennsylvania State University
> > > > > email: mannatXYZxyz.edu
> > > > > University Park, PA 16802-5013
> > > > >
> > > > > website:
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
> > > > > "Dire Predictions" book site:
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > >
> > > > Prof. Phil Jones
> > > > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> > > > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> > > > University of East Anglia
> > > > Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> > > > NR4 7TJ
> > > >
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > --
> > > Michael E. Mann
> > > Associate Professor
> > > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
> > >
> > > Department of
> > > Meteorology
> > > Phone: (814) 863-4075
> > > 503 Walker
> > > Building
> > > FAX: (814) 865-3663
> > > The Pennsylvania State University
> > > email: mannatXYZxyz.edu
> > > University Park, PA 16802-5013
> > >
> > > website:
> > >
> > > http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
> > > "Dire Predictions" book site:
> > >
> > > http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html
> > >
> > Prof. Phil Jones
> > Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> > School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> > University of East Anglia
> > Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> > NR4 7TJ
> >
> UK
> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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