Monday, May 7, 2012

3938.txt

cc: Sarah Raper <sraperatXYZxyz-bremerhaven.de>, Sarah Raper <s.raperatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
date: Thu, 30 Sep 2004 12:46:55 -0600
from: Tom Wigley <wigleyatXYZxyz.ucar.edu>
subject: Re: Talk at AAAS in Feb?
to: Stephen H Schneider <shsatXYZxyznford.edu>

Steve,

OK, I'm in. The title is fine. For glaciers, you could contact Sarah
Raper. This
is one of the things she has been working on for the past few years --
although
she has not looked at detection per se (in a statistical sense). Then
again, no-one
has.

Tom.
=======================

Stephen H Schneider wrote:

>Hi Tom, Terry and I just got our session apporved on detection and
>attribution in various areas. We hope you would want to do it for the
>climate signal--methods and all. Here is our placeholder abstract and
>speaker list:
>
>
>Detection and Attribution--Methods and Results--of Climate Trends in
>Temperature
>Sensors, Species and Glaciers
>Organized by: Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University; Terry Root,
>Stanford University
>Detection of anthropogenic influence on climatic trends has been
>well-established since the Second Assessment Report (SAR)
>of the Intergovernmental Panel on CLimate Change (IPCC) in 1995, and
>detection of significant responses of plants and
>animals to climate trends has been established since the 2001 IPCC Working
>Group 2 Third Assessment Report (TAR). Also,
>the worldwide shrinkage of glaciers is also well documented. What has not
>been shown yet to a high degree of confidence, is
>whether the responses of plants and animals is a result of natural or
>anthropogenic climate changes-or both--until now, as this
>sessions will include recent analyses that suggest a discernible impact of
>anthropogenic climate trends in the records of plant
>and animal movements over the last half of the 20th century. Methods for
>detections and attribution will be explored in each
>case--atmospheric temperture trends, glacial trends and species
>trends--and techniques to estimate confidence will also be
>discussed. In view of the importance of attribution to the overall climate
>change policy debate, an investigation of the
>confidence that can be assessed over results and methods for detection and
>attribution is timely.
>Participants Status
>Contact 1 Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University Accepted
>Organizer 1 Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University
>Accepted
>Coorganizer 1 Terry Root, Stanford University Accepted
>Speaker 1 J. Alan Pounds, Monteverde Cloud Forest Preserve and
>Tropical Invited
> Tropical Cloud Forest Trends
>Speaker 2 Terry Root, Stanford University Accepted
> Temperate and Polar Zone Species Responses to Temperature Trends
>Speaker 3 Tom WIgley, National Center for Atmos Res
>Invited
> Detection and Attribution of Climate Trends
>Speaker 4 Stephen H. Schneider, Stanford University Accepted
> Can We Identify and Quantify "Dangerous Climate Changes?"
>Speaker 5 John Walsh, University of Alaska Invited
> Detection and Attribution of Glacier Trend
>
>I just bumped into John in Vienna at IPCC and he is doubtful. Have any
>suggestions for a detection and attribution glaciers & sea ice person?
>Of course, you can speak on "dangerous" too if you want, but we need a
>good methodological talk on climate D&A. You'd be great at it and there
>will be tons of media, of course.
>
>So, what do you think?? YOu could go to the Fellows breakfast you missed
>this year too!! Cheers, Stev
>
>------
>Stephen H. Schneider
>Professor, Dept. of Biological Sciences;
>Co-Director, Center for Environmental Science and Policy
>Stanford University
>Stanford, CA 94305-5020 U.S.A.
>
>Tel: (650)725-9978
>Fax: (650)725-4387
>e-mail: shsatXYZxyznford.edu
>website: http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu
>
>
>
>
>
>

No comments:

Post a Comment