Tuesday, May 8, 2012

3972.txt

date: Fri, 13 Jul 2007 17:01:51 +0100
from: Sarah Dry <S.C.DryatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Other proxy papers
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

Dear Phil

Thanks for sending this papers my way and sharing your thoughts, especially the intriguing
last one you mentioned, about how skewed the proxy world is to Northern Hemisphere data
without really acknowledging that it is so. I'll read up on this material and Mike and I
will continue with the temperature story.

Have a good two weeks away--I do hope it's a vacation!

Many thanks and best wishes,

Sarah

On Jul 13, 2007, at 3:54 PM, Phil Jones wrote:

Sarah,

Here's another from 1998. This is the first paper to produce annual estimates
back to AD 1000.
The first article on the development of an NH series from multiproxy
data was
Bradley, R.S. and Jones, P.D., 1993: 'Little Ice Age' summer temperature variations:
their nature and relevance to recent global warming trends. The Holocene 3, 367-376.
The journal has not been back-scanned this far.
There were earlier estimates of NH Temp series back in time, but none
including Hubert Lamb's various endeavours are not reproducible today.
They are very highly smoothed versions of the course of change.
I mention this as a lot of people got their ideas of the last millennium -
the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age etc - from his papers.
They seem not to trust newer versions (which use orders of magnitude
more data) if they don't have an MWP and an LIA. Odd that people
accept a paper from the 1960s/1970s and ignore 90% of the subject
which has been developed since 1980!
The issues in the proxy world are the global nature of the MWP
and the LIA - how global were they? They occurred in Europe and
North America, but did they in the SH?
My take on this is that any series should be representative of
as many regions of the world as possible. We don't take the instrumental
record back before 1850, as it is mostly then just representative of Europe.
Odd then that people are happy to use just proxy series from Europe
and say they are good for the NH.
We would have quite different concepts of the last millennium if
proxy science had developed in Australia/NZ and not in the North
America/North Atlantic/Europe region.
Cheers
Phil

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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