Wednesday, May 9, 2012

4015.txt

cc: "Myles Allen" <allenatXYZxyz.ox.ac.uk>, "Knutti Reto" <reto.knuttiatXYZxyz.ethz.ch>, "Stott, Peter" <peter.stottatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, "Gabi Hegerl" <gabi.hegerlatXYZxyzac.uk>, "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <francis.zwiersatXYZxyzgc.ca>, "Tim Barnett" <tbarnett-ulatXYZxyzd.edu>, "Hans von Storch" <hvonstorchatXYZxyz.de>, "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "David Karoly" <dkarolyatXYZxyzmelb.edu.au>, "Toru Nozawa" <nozawa@nies.go.jp>, "Ben Santer" <santer1atXYZxyzl.gov>, "Daithi Stone" <stonedatXYZxyz.ox.ac.uk>, "Nathan Gillett" <n.gillettatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Michael Wehner" <mfwehneratXYZxyz.gov>, "Xuebin Zhang" <xuebin.zhang@ec.gc.ca>, "Tom Knutson" <tom.knutson@noaa.gov>
date: Thu, 16 Apr 2009 12:32:03 -0700 (PDT)
from: "Tim Barnett" <tbarnett-ulatXYZxyzd.edu>
subject: Re: proposal-unrelated curiosity
to: "claudia tebaldi" <ctebaldiatXYZxyzmatecentral.org>


claudia...i was asked to comment on the paper; a tepid comment at best.
they just matched a couple of trends. they did not do a heat budget as
they should have. so they maybe right, they maybe wrong. will have to
wait until the problem is done properly. and as i remember they did no
formal D&A. hope this helps, tim
> Hi again
>
> this time a personal inquiry: someone just sent me this paper about
> SST variability in the tropical Atlantic, where it is claimed that a
> large portion of the variability is related to aerosols (dust from
> West Africa and volcanic eruption). I was curious to hear from any of
> you that may have seen this and may want to comment. From the
> abstract, they claim that 69% of the 'recent upward trend' (from
> 1980ish) is explained by aerosols forcing, but then they perform a
> sensitivity analysis to parameters in their model and admit to
> non-robustness of this particular result, if I understand
> correctly...There is no detection/attribution formal methodology at
> play, from what I can tell; they are also apportioning the source of
> variability between strato- and tropospheric aerosols and it is not
> clear to me how they do that...am I too quick and judgmental, or is
> this actually a fairly weak result?
>
> Thanks for any pearl of wisdom you feel like sharing -- I don't know
> enough about a lot of the issues involved here, so I'm trying to
> understand and I thought I exploit my new position as IDAG
> hopefully-honcho-to-be by asking the experts.
>
> c
>
>
> --
> Claudia Tebaldi
> Research Scientist, Climate Central
> http://www.climatecentral.org
> currently visiting IMAGe/NCAR
> PO Box 3000
> Boulder, CO 80305
> tel. 303.497.2487
>


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