Wednesday, May 9, 2012

4028.txt

date: Tue Nov 23 15:35:22 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: RE: FWD: Weather and climate/ TYNDALL SEMINAR
to: f034 <C.GoodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, <c.goodessatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Craig Wallace <craig.wallaceatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Marie Ekstrom <m.ekstrom@uea.ac.uk>

Agreed. This would be one to avoid.
Phil
At 14:56 23/11/2004, f034 wrote:

Phil, Marie, Craig
If this seminar turns into an arguement between Alan and John along the lines
of this correspondence, then I don't think CRU would want to be
involved/responsible!
Clare
>===== Original Message From "Laura Middleton" <Laura.MiddletonatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
=====
>Dear Clare, Craig and Marie,
>I thought this might be good as a joint tyndall CRU seminar, or maybe I've
>got it horribly wrong! Provisional dates feb/march.
>Let me know. Laura
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: John Schellnhuber [[1]mailto:H.J.Schellnhuber@uea.ac.uk]
>Sent: Tuesday, November 23, 2004 11:12
>To: A.J.Thorpe
>Cc: John Schellnhuber; Laura Middleton
>Subject: Re: Weather and climate/ TYNDALL SEMINAR
>Importance: High
>
>Excellent! I will copy this to Laura, who is organizing the Tyndall Seminar
>and who will try to find a convenient date in February or March.
>
>I am looking forward to a very interesting discussion!
>
>Regards,
>John
>
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "A.J.Thorpe" <a.j.thorpeatXYZxyzding.ac.uk>
>To: "John Schellnhuber" <H.J.SchellnhuberatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>Sent: Tuesday, November 23, 2004 10:51 AM
>Subject: Re: Weather and climate
>
>
>> John,
>>
>> I would be very happy to come to Tyndall to give a seminar with a
>title
>> something like "Putting weather into climate: a WWRP perspective on
>climate
>> change prediction". WWRP = World Weather Research Programme. I guess we
>may
>> be looking at February for a possible time slot?
>>
>> Uncertainties will never be zero - all we can do is properly quantify
>> them with the same scientific rigour that we apply to the prediction
>itself.
>> I don't accept the association between GCMs and low, or no, uncertainty.
>No
>> prediction should come without a scientifically-defined and rigorous
>> uncertainty estimate.
>>
>> Alan
>>
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
>> Professor Alan J. Thorpe
>> Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science
>> Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading,
>> Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB
>>
>> Tel: + 44 (0) 118 378 6979/6452
>> Fax: + 44 (0) 118 378 6462
>> Mobile: 0774 771 5842
>> Email: A.J.ThorpeatXYZxyzding.ac.uk
>> Web: [2]http://ncas.nerc.ac.uk
>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "John Schellnhuber" <H.J.SchellnhuberatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>> To: "Alan Thorpe" <a.j.thorpeatXYZxyzding.ac.uk>
>> Cc: "John Schellnhuber" <H.J.SchellnhuberatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>> Sent: Tuesday, November 23, 2004 10:08 AM
>> Subject: Re: Weather and climate
>>
>>
>> > Dear Alan,
>> >
>> > Interesting debate - I wonder whether we should pursue it in a more
>> > organized way: would you be willing to come for a Tyndall seminar in due
>> > course to present your ideas? This could have a significant impact on
>our
>> > Phase II strategy. And it would be fun, anyway, to discuss these subtle
>> > issues with you.
>> >
>> > Just one remark on your note: Hadley is number one - in the GCM field -
>> but
>> > is this the most important field for climate change management? You
>cannot
>> > wait for starting climate protection policy until all uncertainties have
>> > been removed. So it boils done again to what we mean by precaution.
>> >
>> > Would be nice to see you soon for further exchange of arguments.
>> >
>> > Regards,
>> > John
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Alan Thorpe" <a.j.thorpeatXYZxyzding.ac.uk>
>> > To: "John Schellnhuber" <H.J.SchellnhuberatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>> > Sent: Monday, November 22, 2004 8:00 PM
>> > Subject: Re: Weather and climate
>> >
>> >
>> > > John,
>> > >
>> > > Thanks for this - I wonder if you should contact the BBC and THES
>as
>> > > they use your words in quotation marks.
>> > >
>> > > In fact I don't agree with you about the intellectual advancement
>> > point.
>> > > Climate impacts are in fact mostly expressed by the details of
>weather.
>> So
>> > > at any level weather and climate are intimately intertwined - basic
>> > science
>> > > or impacts. NERC currently spends over �60M per annum on climate
>change
>> > but
>> > > rather little on weather research.
>> > >
>> > > I agree that the tipping points are important to understand. But I
>> > > remain to be convinced about intermediate complexity models (ICM) as a
>> > tool
>> > > to inform policy. Current full-complexity climate models are pretty
>> coarse
>> > > grain and I think we need to be more up front about the large
>> > uncertainties
>> > > in them. Computing resources are such that we can, if we pool them,
>run
>> at
>> > > much higher resolution than currently. Then we can have credible
>> > > simulations. Removing some of the complexity (in a ICM) seems to me to
>> be
>> > an
>> > > intellectually backward step. If we had access to computing power like
>> the
>> > > Earth Simulator we could keep the complexity. Producing a bad answer
>now
>> > (by
>> > > throwing out some of the known physics) is probably worse than waiting
>> a
>> > > little while until we can get close to the right answer. There are
>> enough
>> > > known unknowns without throwing out some known knowns!
>> > >
>> > > Advances in climate and weather models go hand in hand so funding
>> one
>> > is
>> > > useful to the other. This is not just philosophy, it works
>practically -
>> > > this is why the Hadley Centre is number one in the world actually.
>> > >
>> > > Alan
>> > >
>> > > -------------------
>> > > > Dear Alan,
>> > > >
>> > > > I am sorry for - inadvertantly - alarming you. My response to your
>> note
>> > > > comes in two pieces.
>> > > >
>> > > > 1. I did not make the statement in question at the ESOF 2004. I had
>a
>> > > phone
>> > > > chat with Alex Kirby, BBC, some time before the conference, where we
>> may
>> > > > have touched upon the relative importance of weather vs. climate
>> > research,
>> > > > and I possibly said that the balance is still not right. I certainly
>> did
>> > > not
>> > > > say that we are spending TOO MUCH on weather forecasting - the
>> > proportion
>> > > > would have to be corrected by INCREASING the funds for climate
>change
>> > > > science, of course.
>> > > >
>> > > > 2. My quintessential point, however, remains the concern that we
>might
>> > > > miss/overlook the points of no return in the Earth System, i.e., the
>> > > > strategic intervention options, while we push the weather forecast
>> > horizon
>> > > > by a day or so per decade, using incredible amounts of human
>ingenuity
>> > and
>> > > > resources. The latter is important, but - perhaps - less crucial
>right
>> > now
>> > > > while we may be about to destabilize the planetary machinery at
>large!
>> > So
>> > > > it's " first things first! ".
>> > > >
>> > > > I assume that you have a similar perspective on the relative
>> importance
>> > of
>> > > > intellectual advancement. I fully appreciate your point about a
>> holistic
>> > > > approach, yet we may not have the time to wait until the all-
>> timescales
>> > > > hierarchy of fluid dynamics models has emerged through bottom-up
>> > > evolution.
>> > > > Physics-based models of intermediate complexity or preliminary 3D
>> Earth
>> > > > System models might be needed in the meantime and have to be
>properly
>> > > > funded. I'd be happy to pursue this debate if you feel that you
>cannot
>> > > agree
>> > > > with me here.
>> > > >
>> > > > On the other hand, I PROMISE to make sure that any statement of mine
>> on
>> > > the
>> > > > weather-climate nexus cannot be misused for dividing the community -
>> nor
>> > > for
>> > > > letting the funders off some hook.
>> > > >
>> > > > Regards,
>> > > > John
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > Original Message -----
>> > > > From: "Alan Thorpe" <a.j.thorpeatXYZxyzding.ac.uk>
>> > > > To: <h.j.schellnhuberatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>> > > > Sent: Saturday, November 13, 2004 10:44 AM
>> > > > Subject: Weather and climate
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > > John,
>> > > > >
>> > > > > I was alarmed to see you quoted in the Times Higher Education
>> > > > Supplement
>> > > > > this week: "We're investing too much in things like improving the
>> > > accuracy
>> > > > > of our weather forecasts ........". I hope it is a mis-quote but I
>> see
>> > > > that
>> > > > > the BBC website gives the same quote as coming from a talk you
>gave
>> at
>> > a
>> > > > > Euro conference in August.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Aside from the socio-economic benefits of weather forecasts,
>> which
>> > > are
>> > > > > huge, any suggestion of a dichotomy between weather and climate
>> > > prediction
>> > > > > is false. Climate impacts will come in major part through weather
>> > events
>> > > > and
>> > > > > it will be the forecasting of these that actually matters to
>> society.
>> > > Also
>> > > > > climate models have at their core global weather models and are
>> > actually
>> > > > > only as good as their ability to describe accurately the weather
>> > systems
>> > > > and
>> > > > > their nonlinear averaging as input to climate. So improving
>weather
>> > > > > forecasts helps to improve climate forecasts. I, and a lot of
>> others,
>> > > have
>> > > > > been trying hard to stop any wedge being driven between weather
>and
>> > > > climate
>> > > > > research. We are working towards a holistic and integrated
>> forecasting
>> > > > > system on time ranges from minutes to decades.
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Alan
>> > > > >
>> > > > > *********************************************************
>> > > > > Professor Alan J. Thorpe
>> > > > > Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science
>> > > > > Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading,
>> > > > > Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB
>> > > > >
>> > > > > Tel: + 44 (0) 118 931 6979/6452
>> > > > > Fax: + 44 (0) 118 931 6462
>> > > > > Mobile: 0774 771 5842
>> > > > > Email: A.J.ThorpeatXYZxyzding.ac.uk
>> > > > > Web: [3]http://ncas.nerc.ac.uk
>> > > > >
>> > > > > *********************************************************
>> > > > >
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > *********************************************************
>> > > Professor Alan J. Thorpe
>> > > Director, NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science
>> > > Dept of Meteorology, University of Reading,
>> > > Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB
>> > >
>> > > Tel: + 44 (0) 118 931 6979/6452
>> > > Fax: + 44 (0) 118 931 6462
>> > > Mobile: 0774 771 5842
>> > > Email: A.J.ThorpeatXYZxyzding.ac.uk
>> > > Web: [4]http://ncas.nerc.ac.uk
>> > >
>> > > *********************************************************
>> > >
>> >
>> >
>>
>>

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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