Friday, May 11, 2012


cc: Mohamed Hassan:;, Ravi Sharma <>, Roland Fuchs <>, Hassan Virji <>,
date: Fri, 25 Jun 2004 14:57:53 -0400
from: Neil Leary <>
subject: AIACC Vulnerability Synthesis

To: AIACC Technical Committee and Mentors

Dear Friends,

We've received 15 paper proposals for AIACC's synthesis of vulnerability to climate change.
Attached is a spreadsheet that provides summary information about each. Also attached is a
zipped folder with the submitted abstracts.

We may receive more -- 3 PIs said they planned to submit an abstract but have not. Also,
there has been some discussion of a possible joint paper on food security that would
involve 2 or 3 AIACC projects plus a study from South Africa that Tom Downing and Gina
Ziervogel are participating in.

I would like your advice on which of the paper proposals to accept. Also your
recommendations for recruiting new papers to fill any gaps. First priority for recruiting
new papers would be from AIACC participants. But we can include a small number from outside
the group of AIACC studies. Recommendations of women are particularly needed - the
Rockefeller Foundation is keen for us to have good gender balance for the workshop at
Bellagio. For the submitted abstracts, only 2 have female lead authors, 13 male.

Of the 15 submitted abstracts, 12 appear to me to be suitable and likely to be good papers.
I think they will provide a good foundation for our synthesis.

The abstract from SIS09 (Fiji) is focused on observed climate trends and projected climate
changes and is not about vulnerability. In my view it is not suitable for inclusion. The
PI, Koshy, says they will soon submit a 2nd abstract that is an integrated assessment of

The abstract from SIS90 (Rolph Payet & Wills Agricole, Seychelles) is the weakest of the
abstracts. There is little about methods and no preliminary results. Vulnerability is only
hinted at in the abstract. This project has been struggling from the start. I would
particularly like your advice on this one -- do we include them and hope for the best? This
would probably require some guidance to help them produce a suitable paper.

The only other paper that I am hesitant about including is the one from SIS06 (Amarakoon et
al, Caribbean). However, unless some of you have strong reservations about it, I'm
inclined to accept it.

The geographic spread is good. We have 4 proposed papers from Africa, 5 from Asia, 3 from
Latin America and 1 each from Caribbean, Oceania and Indian Ocean. The proposed papers
group by topic as follows:

Agriculture/Food Security/Rural Livelihoods: AF14 (Sudan), AF23 (Nigeria), AF92 (Mali &
Nigeria), AS06 (Mongolia), AS12 (Sri Lanka), AS21 (Philippines), LA29 (Mexico & Argentina)

Human Health: AF91 (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda; malaria), SIS06 (Caribbean; dengue)

Natural Systems: AS21 (Philippines; forests), LA32 (Uruguay; estuary, fishery)

Water system: AS25 (China)

Urban Flooding: LA26 (Argentina)

Tourism: SIS90 (Seychelles)

Climate observations and projections: SIS09 (Fiji)

Grouping by method or approach is not as simple. But roughly they group as:

Measuring vulnerability/vulnerability indicators: AF14, AF92, AS21, AS25, LA26

Vulnerability profiling: AF23, AF91

Statistical analysis of climate-response relationships: AF91 (malaria), AS06 (livestock
losses), AS12 (coconut and tea yields), LA29 (crop yields), SIS06 (dengue), SIS90 (tourist
visits -- using survey data, not past observations)

Computational modeling of system behavior: AF23 (crop yields), AS12 (cropy yields), AS21
(Holdridge life zones), LA26 (storm surge, flooding), LA32 (estuary dynamics).

Thanks for your help.



Neil A. Leary
Science Director
Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC)
The International START Secretariat
2000 Florida Avenue NW, Suite 200
Washington, DC 20009 USA
Phone: 1 202 462 2213
Fax: 1 202 457 5859

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\!Bellagio_abstracts.xls" Attachment Converted:

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