cc: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
date: Tue, 15 Nov 2005 10:29:42 -0500
from: "Michael E. Mann" <mannatXYZxyzeo.psu.edu>
subject: Re: heads up...
to: Tim Osborn <t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
Thanks Tim, Phil
yes, I never had any doubt he's wrong. In fact he's been wrong about
just about every claim he's ever made. He almost had a point w/ the PCA
centering, but as we all know, that doesn't matter at all in the end.
The issue isn't whether or not he's right, as we all well know by now,
but whether his false assertions have enough superficial plausability to
get traction. In this case, they might, so probably good to at least be
I was told by a journalist Paul Thacker that his poster got prominent
placement, probably not an accident (see forwarded email). I believe
that Mike Schlesinger and David Karoly were there in the same session,
so might be worth checking w/ them. I think Connie Woodhouse and Tom
Wigley were also at the meeting, but not sure...
I suspect that this is the first in a line of attacks (I'm sure Tom C is
next in line) that will ultimately get "published" one way or another.
The GRL leak may have been plugged up now w/ new editorial leadership
there, but these guys always have "Climate Research" and "Energy and
Environment", and will go there if necessary.
They are telegraphing quite clearly where they are going w/ all of this...
Tim Osborn wrote:
> Thanks for this Mike. We'd spotted an earlier draft of his poster and
> were a bit concerned about this receiving prominence at the meeting.
> Did it arouse much discussion, do you know? Keith and Tom Melvin
> looked into the dating a while back when McIntyre first raised it and
> were quite satisfied with the published dating I think. Not sure what
> should be done - unless he submits something for peer-review. Cheers,
> At 14:53 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote:
>> not sure if you guys are aware, McIntyre presented this poster at
>> the CCSP meeting. Apparently, they gave him a very prominent
>> location, so that everyone entering the meeting would have seen the
>> can find at:
>> More on Hockey Sticks: The Case of Jones et al. 
>> Stephen McIntyre,
>> Multiproxy studies purporting to show 20th century uniqueness have
>> been applied by policymakers, but they have received remarkably
>> little independent critical analysis. Jones et al.  is a
>> prominent multi-proxy study used by IPCC  and others to affirm
>> the hockey stick shaped temperature reconstruction of Mann et al.
>> . However, the reconstruction of Jones et al.  is based
>> on only 3-4 proxies in the controversial Medieval Warm Period,
>> including non-arms-length studies by Briffa et al.  and Briffa
>> et al . We show that the Polar Urals data set in Briffa et al
>>  fails to meet a variety of quality control standards, both in
>> replication and crossdating. The conclusion of Briffa et al. 
>> that 1032 was the "coldest year" of the millennium proves to be based
>> on inadequate replication of only 3 tree ring cores, of which at
>> least 2 are almost certainly incorrectly crossdated. We show that an
>> ad hoc adjustment to the Tornetrask data set in Briffa et al 
>> cannot be justified. The individual and combined impact of defects in
>> the Polar Urals data set and Tornetrask adjustments on the
>> reconstruction of Jones et al  is substantial and can be seen
>> to have the effect of modifying what would otherwise indicate a
>> pronounced Medieval Warm Period in the proxy reconstruction.
>> Inhomogeneity problems in the Polar Urals and Tornetrask data sets,
>> pertaining to altitude, minimum girth bias and pith centering bias
>> will also be discussed.
>> Michael E. Mann
>> Associate Professor
>> Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
>> Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
>> 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
>> The Pennsylvania State University email:
>> University Park, PA 16802-5013
> Dr Timothy J Osborn
> Climatic Research Unit
> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
> Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
> e-mail: t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> phone: +44 1603 592089
> fax: +44 1603 507784
> web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
> sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm
Michael E. Mann
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: mannatXYZxyz.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013