Friday, May 11, 2012


date: Tue Jan 15 13:17:19 2008
from: Phil Jones <>
subject: Differences in our series (GISS/HadCRUT3)
to: James Hansen <>

Jim, Gavin,
Thanks for the summary about 2007. We're saying much the same things
about recent temps, and probably when it comes to those idiots
saying global warming is stopping - in some recent RC and CA threads. Gavin
has gone to town on this with 6,7, 8 year trends etc.
What I wanted to touch base on is the issue in this figure I
got yesterday. This is more of the same. You both attribute the differences to
your extrapolation over the Arctic (as does Stefan). I've gone along with
this, but have you produced an NH series excluding the Arctic ? Do these
agree better?
I reviewed a paper from NCDC (Tom Smith et al) about issues with
recent SSTs and the greater number of buoy type data since the late-90s
(now about 70%) cf ships. The paper shows ships are very slightly warmer
cf buoys (~0.1-0.2 for all SST). I don't think they have implemented an
adjustment for this yet, but if done it would raise global T by about 0.1
for the recent few years. The paper should be out in J. Climate soon.
The HC folks are not including SST data appearing in the Arctic for regions
where their climatology (61-90) includes years which had some sea ice. I
take it you and NCDC are not including Arctic SST data where the
climatology isn't correct? You get big positive anomalies if you do.
Some day we will have to solve both these issues. Both are difficult,
especially the latter!

At 21:39 14/01/2008, you wrote:

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Discussion of 2007 GISS global temperature analysis is posted at Solar and Southern

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email

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