Sunday, May 13, 2012


date: Fri, 12 Oct 2007 17:48:35 -0400
from: "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <>
subject: RE: Past Millennia Climate Variability - Review Paper - reminder
to: "Phil Jones" <>

Hi Phil

This is a familiar refrain, but I haven't produced that 1 page yet. The
reason is that we received the reviews on Terry's paper this week. It
has been accepted with minor revision. The main comment was that we
should have a look at the effect of constructing pseudo proxies with red
noise, so Terry is quickly looking at that. Indications are that this
does not affect conclusions about the relative merits of different
methods. In thinking about this, I also realized that we had not
properly included the estimated responses to forcing in the kalman
filter method (this was subtle, and wasn't picked up by the reviewers
either). Doing it right turns out to be difficult. Doing it very close
to right is less difficult, and so Terry is looking at that also - and
again indications are that it has little effect on our results. So while
the revisions probably won't change our conclusions materially - I'm
holding off just a bit longer.

I haven't heard anything back from Eugene yet - will contact him when
the 1-pager is ready. I don't think there is a huge gap between our
perspectives - it is not inconsistent that a given method produces a
"good" reconstruction given a particular collection of proxies, but that
it performs less well than some other methods under general conditions.

Cheers, Francis

PS - I guess we are writing to each other as Nobel Laureates now -

Francis Zwiers
Director, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada
4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont. M3H 5T4
Phone: 416 739 4767, Fax 416 739 5700

-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones []
Sent: October 9, 2007 7:33 AM
To: Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]; Wahl, Eugene R
Subject: Re: Past Millennia Climate Variability - Review Paper -

Francis, Gene,
Gene, I discussed the paper with Francis last week when we were
both together.
Francis has a paper based on the work he discussed in Wengen. It comes
different conclusions from yours and Caspar's. It is likely that one
of you
(probably Caspar - as they have been slow) is one of the reviewer's.
can you discuss the contribution Francis will make to the paper from
the Wengen meeting amongst yourselves. Francis' contribution was
to have been in section 5, while what you've sent Gene is in section
I'm sure Francis would be happy to send you the paper, Gene,
if you don't yet have it.

Taking on putting this paper together has been a real nightmare.
I still can't seem to get any response from Keith, Tim and Caspar -
and I know two of them are in rooms less than 5m from me!


Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email

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