Sunday, May 13, 2012


cc: "Mike Hulme" <>, <>, "tomas markvart" <>, <>, "Brian Launder" <>, <>, "Frans Berkhout" <>, <>, "Martin Parry" <>, "Jean Palutikof" <>, <>
date: Mon, 19 Nov 2001 12:15:58 -0000
subject: Re: John Page suggests advantages of interlinking European Solar
to: <>, "John Page" <>

Dear John,

Thanks for your supportive email and attachments. Although we
have discussed some of the points you raise I had better state
my answers here for the wider audience you have addressed.

Re Tyndall IT 1.8, the project is looking at the extremes of the
Hadley model scenarios with our colleagues at UEA primarily.
The first objective is to examine extremes of dry bulb
temperature, (UEA objective), (objective in full: Analyse long
term weather series for extreme temperature value distributions,
and assess how well Global Climate Models and Regional
Climate Models model these extremes.)

The second is to look at the extremes of solar, wet bulb and
wind (UMIST), (in full: Extend Objective (1) to extreme
distributions of solar, vapour pressure and wind, (parameters
important for building and plant design), and to produce
scenarios of expected future weather changes and UK Test
Reference Years and Design Weather Sequences for future
years 2025 and 2050, for use in building and plant design.)
David Chow is working on this with myself and Patrick Laycock
primarily. This is examining GEV, Pareto etc, extreme and near-
extreme distributions.

The third objective, some way off in our schedule, relates to
obtaining a TRY for 2025 and 2050. (Objective in full: Using
above UK Test Reference Years and Design Weather
Sequences to analyse, by computer simulation, comfort, energy,
(especially electrical), and carbon emission implications for
typical current and sustainable building designs, in collaboration
with RP2 and RP3 projects.) Here we�ll need solar algorithms
for interpolating hourly data from the daily data. You are the
UMIST team expert on solar algorithms and this is where your
input will be needed most so your comments on the UMIST
team seem a little strange.

The project is just adequately, but not highly, funded. So there is
little spare time for extra work on the EU Atlas data. However,
some of the algorithms may be useful, although we are also
looking at two other weather generators. I would like to see the
Atlas you have spoken so much about, but David does not have
too much time at present to devote to past EU, non-Hadley
data. I am also aware of the additional work and lateness of the
solar data and text that caused problems for the CIBSE Guide.
The IT 1.8 project will finish on time and to budget but must
concentrate on the objectives and deliverables. David and I are
happy to travel to Sheffield to have a look at the Atlas data,
algorithms and to discuss the work required bearing in mind the

The Hadley data we have is provided by Phil Jones at UEA and
he is pursuing further details of the actual algorithms, cloud as
well solar. These will give us some insight to our statistical
results. Confirmation of the basic derivation of the data is of vital
importance. Some of this information is now available but all the
finer details you request may not be available quickly. Although
it would be good to have all the details you want some is more
important than others and more easily obtained. So it is unlikely
for you to have all the details on your desk soon; your condition
for starting work with us. However, your comments on the two
Edwards solar algorithm papers I gave you some weeks ago
would be useful and add to the input from Tom Choularton. The
later Hadley solar model seems initially good but whether good
or bad we have to deal with its output upon which many
scenarios are based and which this project is about. As we
discussed on Friday, it would also be very helpful to get the
latest RCM model data which Mike Hulme and his researchers
have. (Can we have access to the data, Mike?)

Re the EU data being linked with the Hadley data, I need to see
the EU data before I can comment.

Re your thoughts for generalised climate change data, (possible
Tyndall project), I generally agree, but whether Tyndall will be
interested in non UK data and scenarios I am uncertain about.
(Can you comment, please, Mike.) To become a viable second
round proposal your idea needs more work on the objectives
and deliverables. I am happy to discuss these with you.

Re the CIBSE Guide, I understand that the Met O will be
issuing the hourly design data that we developed in December.
I�ve spoken to Prof Muneer about the need for one or two
papers on the solar QA methods, (Andy Wright and I are
writing one on the synoptic data). Could you contact him and
perhaps suggest separate papers on your individual work. Tariq
has submitted an abstract to the April Climate Change
Conference but it about some overseas measurements he has

Good travelling in Europe and have a good meeting.



From: "John Page" <>
To: <>
Copies to: "Mike Hulme" <>,
"tomas markvart" <>,
"Brian Launder" <>,
"Frans Berkhout" <>,
"Martin Parry" <>,
"Jean Palutikof" <>,
Subject: John Page suggests advantages of interlinking European Solar Radiation Atlas to Hadley Centre scenarios
Date sent: Mon, 12 Nov 2001 17:48:27 -0000

> All
> This attachment suggests a good research yield through interacting two
> well funded programmes John Page

Dr Geoff Levermore
Department of Civil & Construction Engineering
UMIST PO Box 88 Manchester M60 1QD
Tel 0161 200 4257
Fax 0161 200 4252
Also can use
Mrs Helen McCaffery
Tel 0161 200 8965
Fax 0161 200 4252

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