Sunday, May 13, 2012

4215.txt

cc: Gavin Schmidt <gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk
date: Tue, 19 Aug 2008 08:53:57 -0400
from: Michael Mann <mannatXYZxyzeo.psu.edu>
subject: Re: Revised version the Wengen paper
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

p.s. regarding the CET issue, I realize that may not be our intent, but I'd hate for us to
produce a graphic so easily misrepresented by the naysayers. We reallyneed to find a way to
show the true current warmth on the scale, either throuh not dropping the end, or showing
the raw annual series for comparison to the smoothed long-term curves,
mike
Phil Jones wrote:

Mike, Gavin,
On the final Appendix plot, the first and last 12 years of the annual CET record
were omitted from the smoothed plot. Tim's away, but when he did this with
them in the light blue line goes off the plot at the end. The purpose of the piece
was to show that the red/black lines were essentially the same. It wasn't
to show the current light blue smoothed line was above the red/blue lines,
as they are crap anyway.
The y-axis scale of the plot is constrained by what was in the IPCC
diagram from the first report. What we'll try is adding it fully back in or
dashing the first/last 12 years. The 50-year smoother includes quite
a bit of padding - we're using your technique Mike. The issue is that CET
has been so warm the last 20 years or so.
Normal people in the UK think the weather is cold and the summer is
lousy, but the CET is on course for another very warm year. Warmth
in winter/spring doesn't seem to count in most people's minds
when it comes to warming.
Will mod the borehole section now. Because this had been written
by Juerg initially, I added in a paraphrased section from AR4. I will
mod this accordingly. Hope you noticed Peck's stuff.
Cheers
Phil
At 17:28 18/08/2008, Michael Mann wrote:

Hi Phil,
traveling, and only had brief opportunity to look this over. only 2 substantial
comments:
1. I don't know who wrote the first paragraph of section 3.3 (bottom of page 52/page
53), but the lack of acknowledgement here in this key summary that we actually
introduced the idea of 'pseudoproxies' into the climate literature is very troubling.
the end of the first sentence:
- e.g., Zorita and Gonz�lez-Rouco, 2002, K�ttel et al., 2007),
should be changed to:
- e.g., Mann and Rutherford, 2002; Zorita and Gonz�lez-Rouco, 2002, Rutherford et al,
2003; K�ttel et al., 2007),
2. I'm also a bit confused and very concerned about the description of smoothing in
Appendix A Figure 1. It sounds like the last 12 years were removed from the end of the
series? If so, that's not a fair comparison because its really the past decade that
takes us into 'unprecedented' territory. I would suggest one of two alternative
approaches:
a. show the full smoothed curve without removing end data (I don't see any objective
justification for doing that) or
b. show the raw annual data through 2006 so readers can see how the most recent values
compare w/ the MWP peak.
By the way, I have a revised version of Mann [2004] now in press in GRL, I've attached.
Please don't distribute or cite prior to publication (which should be one or two weeks
from now).
thanks,
mike
Phil Jones wrote:

Dear All,
Here's the revised version of the paper, together with the responses to the
reviewers.
We have told John Matthews, that we will get this back to him by the beginning
of next week. To us in the UK this means Aug 26/27 as next Monday is a national
holiday. So, to those not away at the moment, can you look through your
parts and get any comments back to us by the end of this week or over the
weekend?
Can you also look at the references - those in yellow and let me know of
any that have come out, or are able to correct those that I think just look
wrong?
I hope you'll think of this as an improvement.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------


--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of
Meteorology
Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker
Building
FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University
email: [2]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

website:
[3]
http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
"Dire Predictions" book site:
[4]
http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html


Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email [5]p.jones@uea.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

--
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [6]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013

website: [7]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm
"Dire Predictions" book site: [8]http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,0
0.html


No comments:

Post a Comment