Tuesday, May 15, 2012

4257.txt

cc: k.briffa@uea
date: Fri, 29 Jun 2001 14:11:57 +0100
from: Tim Osborn <t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Holivar workshop
to: Hans Renssen <renssenatXYZxyzr.ucl.ac.be>

Hans,

I already sent a message about the suggested dates. Other than that, the
preliminary arrangements sound fine to me, with regard to hotel and budget.
The suggested list of participants is useful as a starting point, but I'm
not entirely happy with it. I wonder whether we should define a structure
for the meeting, with various subsections each addressing a particular
question or covering a particular subtopic. Then we can find suitable
people to invite for each subsection. For example:

A. Methods

A1. Statistical problems and techniques

[This section to include spatial scale incompatibility, uncertainty in
proxy data, signal-to-noise problems, and techniques for comparison]

A2. Inverse approaches to model-data comparison

[This section to give examples of the inverse approach, where climate is
reconstructed/estimated from the proxy data, and subsequently compared to
the climate model simulation. Some high resolution time series examples
and some low resolution or time slice examples would be good.]

A3. Forward approaches to model-data comparison

[This section to give examples of the forward approach, where appropriate
physical, biological, chemical or empirical models are driven by climate
model output to simulate a proxy value or time series, and then this
simulated proxy is compared with the actual proxy data. Again, high and
low resolution examples would be good.]

B. The last 1000 years at annual-decadal resolution

B1. Modelling forced and unforced climate variability over the past 1000 years

B2. Climate proxy data for the last 1000 years

B3. Intercomparisons of model and proxy data

[I'm less familiar with the longer timescales and lower resolution cases,
so the next sections may not reflect current science activity very well.]

C. The last 6000 years (or more?)

C1. Transient modelling of the Holocene

C2. Model-data time series comparisons over the Holocene period

C3. Timeslice modelling during the Holocene

C4. Model-data comparisons for certain time slices (is it still 6 kBP that
is the focus of research activity?)

D. What improvements to models, data and techniques are necessary to help
achieve the goals of HOLIVAR.

This structure may well need to be refined, but I think it will help to
identify who the key people are to invite. Certainly some modelling and
data people from the lists that you compiled would be invited, though I
don't think it is necessary to invite someone from every modelling centre,
nor from each proxy type. Some US participants might be important, though
there is the question mark about how they would be funded. Suggestions,
including topics they would usefully contribute to:

Bernhard Reichart (A1, A3)
Weber (A2)
Osborn (A1, A2, B3)
Jones (B2, B3)
Briffa (B2) [in fact there are many people in your "data" list who can
contribute to B2, C2 and/or C4]
Tett (B1)
Mat Collins (B3)
Joussaume/Jouzel, Gavin Schmidt (A3) [isotopes in models]
Akesson (A1)
von Storch, Martin Widmann (B1, B3)
Tom Crowley (B1, B2, B3)
Mike Mann (A1, B2)
LLN group (C1)
Stocker, Ganapolski (C1)
etc.
etc.
(sorry for the lack of order here!)

The preliminary text for the invitation letter is good. I've made some
suggested modifications (IN CAPITALS), but feel free to ignore them if you
disagree!

>-----------------------------------------------------------------
>Preliminary text
>
>ESF-Holivar Workshop:
>'Holocene climate variability: comparisons of climate model simulations
>with palaeoclimate reconstructions'
>
>This workshop is part of the European Science Foundation (ESF) programme on
>Holocene climate variability (HOLIVAR). The overall goal of this programme
>is to increase the understanding of natural climate variability on
>different time-scales (annual to centennial) over the last 10,000 years and
>to establish how this understanding can improve the predictability of
>climate models.
>
THE AIM OF THIS WORKSHOP IS STRONGLY TIED TO THE COMBINED USE OF CLIMATE
MODELS AND PALAEOCLIMATE DATA IN ADDRESSING THE OVERALL GOALS OF HOLIVAR.
THE FOCUS WILL THEREFORE BE ON HOW PALAEODATA ARE BEING USED FOR EVALUATION
OF MODEL SIMULATIONS, HOW MODEL SIMULATIONS ARE BEING USED TO AID IN THE
INTERPRETATION OF PALAEODATA, AND WHAT TECHNIQUES AND APPROACHES ARE BEING
DEVELOPED THAT ARE NECESSARY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENT CHARACTERISTICS
OF THE DATA TYPES.
(DELETE NEXT PARAGRAPH)
>The aim of this workshop is to obtain an overview of the present state of
>palaeoclimate modelling focused at the Holocene and to evaluate strategies
>to compare these model results with different types of high resolution
>(annual to centennial) palaeoclimate reconstructions.
>
>The meeting will be held on 6, 7 and 8 June 2002 in Hotel Mercure,
>Louvain-la-neuve, Belgium. Arrival for the workshop would be on 5 June,
>2002 (Thursday) with departure on the morning of 9 June, 2002 (Sunday).
>Louvain-la-neuve is a small university town conveniently located at 30 km
>from Brussels.
>
>-----------------------------------------------------------------

Finally...

I will be on holiday for the next 2 weeks. Back on 16 July. Please cc any
emails to Keith Briffa, in case there are questions that need answering
while I am away.

Best regards

Tim


Dr Timothy J Osborn | phone: +44 1603 592089
Senior Research Associate | fax: +44 1603 507784
Climatic Research Unit | e-mail: t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk
School of Environmental Sciences | web-site:
University of East Anglia __________| http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/
Norwich NR4 7TJ | sunclock:
UK | http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm

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