Wednesday, May 16, 2012

4276.txt

date: Wed, 19 Sep 2007 15:25:12 -0400
from: "Zwiers,Francis [Ontario]" <francis.zwiersatXYZxyzgc.ca>
subject: Wengen paper
to: "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

Hi Phil

I spent some time recently while travelling thinking about the Wengen paper. I was also at
the CLIVAR SSG meeting in Geneva last week, and somehow was under the impression that you
would be there, so I was hoping we would be able to talk about it. The difficulty I have is
that I don't quite know where our work on the intercomparison of methods would fit into the
paper, given that there is already quite a lot of material on the evaluation of techniques
from Caspar and colleagues that comes at this from a different angle. Their conclusion
seems to be that the specific MBH reconstruction is fine. On the other hand, our
conclusion, and that of others I think, is that the technique itself is not so fine - it
does lose variability relative to other techniques in repeated testing when evaluated in a
model environment. How do we deal with the apparent incongruity between (a) a method with
problems, (b) analyses that suggest that nevertheless, the particular reconstruction in
question seems to be ok, and (c) evidence that indicates that there are substantial
differences between the available reconstructions, with many other reconstructions
suggesting a more variable past than indicated by the MBH reconstruction. So I'm just not
sure where our material (perhaps a couple of pages) would fit in. The section that we might
have contributed (3.3) seems to have been occupied.

Cheers, Francis

PS - Thorstein was at the CLIVAR meeting, and I spoke to him indicating that I hadn't
forgotten about the paper, but that I was a bit confused about what my contribution might
be. At least he understands that I haven't forgotten about this.

PPS - We submitted our paper to Climate Dynamics on July 3, but still haven't received a
decision despite the fact that three people have told me that they are reviewers of the
paper - sigh.

Francis Zwiers
Director, Climate Research Division, Environment Canada
4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ont. M3H 5T4
Phone: 416 739 4767, Fax 416 739 5700

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