cc: Alan Robock <robockatXYZxyzwfall.envsci.rutgers.edu>
date: Wed Sep 1 09:04:23 2004
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: temperature trend in Antarctic
to: Konstantin Vinnikov <kostyaatXYZxyzos.umd.edu>
Here are two sets of time series. The first is what I've called Antarctica for years
(all 5 deg
boxes with data from 60-90 S). This is the one that is plotted in Jones and Moberg (2003)
I've also calculated one for 65-90S and that is the second one attached. Both are based
only on land data - NO SSTs for the periphery in some summer months come in. You can take
your pick which one you use.
The series run from 1851, as the program calculates other continents. For the Antarctic
numbers are only useful from about 1956. Before this there were just a few stations in the
Peninsula and one other location from the late-1940s. So ignore all lines from 1851 to
You only want data from 1978 (Nov) anyway. The final month is July 2004. The annual
for 2004 is wrong - it shouldn't use the last 5 zeroes.
Thanks for alerting me to Alan's site.
At 01:05 01/09/2004, Konstantin Vinnikov wrote:
I do not like my estimates of 1978-2004 trend for Antarctic from
your gridded data. I am unable to average data properly. I would prefer to
use your averaging for Antarctic. As I understand it is the area LAT>65S.
I have your time series for Antarctic up to 2002. Would you be so kind as
to send me an updating. I use all other data for the time interval from
November 1978 to February 2004.
Alan is working to convert our paper for Nature. He is at McMurdo in
Antarctic. I looked through his Antarctic web site and did not see any
warming at all. Trend in the Antarctic averages that you sent me ~a year
ago was ~0.06 K/10 yr. It is twice less and more realistic compared to the
trend estimate in our manuscript.
I am working with seasonal-latitudinal distribution of the same trends,
but my current estimates are very preliminary and very noisy, even for
model simulations. It looks as if Zonal and Annual averaging of our data
is more or less optimal for such a short period of observations.
Dr. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov Office: (301) 405-5382
Department of Meteorology Home: (301) 779-2970
University of Maryland Fax: (301) 314-9482
College Park, MD 20742 E-mail: kostyaatXYZxyzos.umd.edu
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk