cc: joos <joosatXYZxyzmate.unibe.ch>, Eystein Jansen <eystein.jansenatXYZxyz.uib.no>, Bette Otto-Bleisner <ottobliatXYZxyzr.ucar.edu>, cddhratXYZxyzs.nasa.gov
date: Fri, 1 Sep 2006 10:16:32 -0600
from: Jonathan Overpeck <jtoatXYZxyzrizona.edu>
subject: Re: urgent IPCC need
to: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
Hi all - ok, I think we're all in agreement - no changes to the ES
except to improve clarity. Thanks Keith and Stefan for feedback. The
only issue that I think we need to discuss more is the 1998 issue. We
have some, Keith, the recent US NAS committee, and myself included,
who think we can't support the TAR on this one, and who wish we
didn't have to note that. We have at least one - Stefan - who makes
an interesting argument that we COULD support it.
I strongly feel we can't ignore it - it is too much in the public
debate. For now (what I send to the TSU as a draft ES), I can leave
this issue unresolved. But, I have to say we're working on it. It's
ok for the AR4 to admit that the TAR didn't get everything right.
Indeed, it makes our strengthening of some statements stronger if we
deal with the 1998/2005 issue in a clear way.
Bette, Fortunat and David have not weighed in yet on this issue, and
I'd like to hear what they say. Please read both Keith's and Stefan's
arguments - sent today - first.
Otherwise, I'll keep things like they were with clarifications and no
points deleted. Hoping to get some of the clarifications from
Fortunat soon, but also to hear from Bette and David.
>I think it best to limit comments to a few most relevant (to me)
>points. Second, I agree with David that this "review" by Martin
>seems a strange anomaly in the process as first declared , and in
>comparison to other chapters. However,.. some the points are ok
>The removal of the word certain after very likely is a must in first bullet.
>agree strongly that best to remove 4th bullet
>as to the "exceptional warmth of the ..." bullet, I think your
>suggested sentence is fine BUT it will need a corresponding
>statement in the main text.
>The reason I did not go into the 1998 debate is that I did not , and
>still do not agree with what the TAR said about 1998. Many
>reconstructions either do not explicitly estimate interannual values
>at all , or where they do , they perform poorly (especially Mann et
>al in the pre-instrumental period). Those that perform well
>(basically only my density based ones) are very clearly summer high
>lat and so there is just not the basis on which to make the
>statement. I avoided this discussion with regard to the TAR because
>I would have had to explicitly criticise its conclusion. I feel it
>is very late in the day to be making these changes (unrefereed).
>[ditto for the inclusion of my paragraph on tree-ring problems about
>which I have received NO feedback at all]
>I VERY STRONGLY AGREE THAT THE BULLET ABOUT THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
>SHOULD HAVE THE LAST SENTENCE REMOVED - IN FACT I DO NOT KNOW HOW
>THIS GOT IN THERE AND MARTIN IS CORRECT THAT IT IS WRITTEN IN A VERY
>ARGUMENTATIVE WAY (IE NOT NEUTRAL)
>will reply separately to your last message. cheers
>At 23:55 31/08/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
>>Hi all - We need to submit our latest chap 6 Exec Summary to TSU
>>tomorrow if we can. We can still make changes, but I wanted to
>>update with Martin's suggestions taken into account. See the
>>attached and please comment regarding my strike throughs and
>>additions (yellow highlight). Martin's comments are in yellowish
>>text, and my questions to you (especially FORTUNAT) are higlighted
>>Please send by tomorrow aft if you can.
>>Not that I've sent to those I think are on-line right now. Will
>>send to the whole team later with more edited text.
>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>University of Arizona
>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>Professor Keith Briffa,
>Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Mail and Fedex Address:
Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795