date: Sat, 15 Feb 1997 19:10:14 +0000
from: Menno Bouma <menno.boumaatXYZxyztm.ac.uk>
subject: malaria in Europe
It has been some time ago that we last met! Hope that things are well
in East Anglia.
1) Did you hear that our joint proposal (with Pim Martens) is one of
1,500 now assessed by the EU? Does not look hopeful. However, maybe
we can do some PR and raise the profile of the proposal a bit.
What I have in mind is a letter to the Lancet relating weather and
historic malaria fluctuations in Europe. In an earlier letter (1994, I may
have given you a copy), the geographical association was made between areas
affected by ENSO and periodic epidemics. This letter ends with an
open explanation for the 20-year periods in malaria in Europe (Italy
and the Netherlands). Last weeks publication in Science on a possible
North Atlantic equivalent of the Nino with a period of 20 years may
be of significance. I dug up the malaria data (Italy and The
Netherlands) between 1820-1930 which do show evidence of this 20
year cycle, with exacerbations in 1821, 1839, 1860, 1879, 1902, 1920.
I have no idea whether there are any climate data (sea temperature or
otherwise) to justify a hypothesis that both phenomena.
Do you have any suggestions?
2) We (Jon Cox and I) recently visited Colombia, and acquired (bought) temperature data
series (varying in length), mainly from the highlands (min & max) for
approximately 35 stations. They are on disk, so in case they are of
any help to you, let us know.
3). We still have not got the monthly India data series (Rajasthan) for
rainfall (and if possible also humidity, and temperature) to continue
our work on remote sensing and epidemic forecasting there. You
mentioned that you tried too to get these data too without result. In
case you have been successful recently, we would be very interested!
Alternatively, maybe the monsoon anomaly maps (per year) which Poona
appears to release, might be useful too. Again, if you have any
suggestions, we would be very obliged.
Hope your work is going well, and look forward to meeting again in the
future. Best wishes,