cc: Ronald Stouffer <Ronald.StoufferatXYZxyza.gov>, Alan Robock <robockatXYZxyzsci.rutgers.edu>, Norman Grody <Norman.GrodyatXYZxyza.gov>
date: Thu Jun 16 10:00:01 2005
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: Trends paper again/ it is for JGR now
to: Konstantin Vinnikov <kostyaatXYZxyzos.umd.edu>
I have looked at the paper and I don't have many comments. Can you always
keep to two decimal places for the trends, so in the abstract say 0.20 +/- 0.10 if
that is what it is? This also occurs later in the text as well.
The trend Mears and Wentz get for their lower tropospheric series is +0.193 degC
per decade. Their error is +/- 0.045 deg C decade, but this is 1SE. I presume yours
is 2SE, which makes the error estimates very close. Mears and Wentz use the
period 1979-2003. As you might have expected UAH are redoing their analysis for
their 2LT. They are closer to the others now for 2LT at 0.115 degC/decade.
The attached paper should be referred to briefly (on p4) as Fu has started to
use this approach with Ch 3, but this can only be done since 1987.
With JGR submission you need to be careful who you suggest to review
or not review the manuscript. I will leave this to you, but it might be worth
suggesting Fu and someone at RSS, but not UAH. I am being asked to review
about 4 times as many papers as normal over the past few months - at least
I can't get this one !
At 14:12 14/06/2005, Konstantin Vinnikov wrote:
This is not important, but, the satellites at polar orbits are
slowing very slow. You cannot see it. The observed change in the equator
crossing time of NOAA satellites is periodic one as it has been shown in
Ignatov et al. (2004) which is missed in our reference list. I will check
all our references later.
As for Mears et al. new paper, as far as I know, there is an extremely
strong pressure on Science to publish it immediately. I feel that I have
a conflict of interest and cannot be objective on this subject because our
paper with the mostly the same results has been rejected. But I should
not complain, our paper is much better now. Norman and I worked really
hard all this time and were able to improve our satellite data and trend
Dr. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov Office: (301) 405-5382
Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Home: (301) 779-2970
University of Maryland Fax: (301) 314-9482
College Park, MD 20742 kostyaatXYZxyzos.umd.edu
On Tue, 14 Jun 2005, Phil Jones wrote:
> I will look at the paper, but have visitors here this week, so may not
> get to it
> until the weekend. I will get comments to you by Monday at the latest.
> Ron is being
> very brief about the sign error the UAH people have in their series. RSS have
> a paper in submission to Science and they get a trend of their MSU2LT
> a little different from UAH) of +0.19 deg C per decade for
> 1979-2004. Our surface
> is +0.17 deg C per decade.
> UAH have their diurnal cycle adjustment for satellite slowing, in
> with the wrong sign.
> Christy has sent me his latest revision. They now get a warming of 2LT of
> +0.12 deg C
> per decade - closer but still lower. If you changed their NOAA-9 factor
> two would
> almosr agree. Keep quiet about all this for a few months yet.
> I'm assuming none of this affects your work as you go back to the raw
> The field is rapidly changing - almost by the week. So it would be
> good to get your
> paper off asap.
> At 04:32 14/06/2005, Ronald Stouffer wrote:
> >HI Kostya,
> >I am visiting PCMDI and just talked with Ben. He said that Christy has a
> >sign error in their MSU 2LT computation. He said that they are are in
> >the process of redoing their calculations and that the error had to do
> >with their diurnal cycle correction. T'is interesting...
> >I will try to read your paper on my way home (Wed).
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: Konstantin Vinnikov <kostyaatXYZxyzos.umd.edu>
> >Date: Monday, June 13, 2005 7:01 pm
> >Subject: Trends paper again/ it is for JGR now
> > > Dear Ron and Phil,
> > >
> > > Norman and I finished new version of our Trends paper. It is too
> > > long now, so it is going to be submitted to JGR-Atmosphere. This
> > > Journalis chosen because related paper on Calibration technique
> > > (Grody et al.,
> > > 2004) is published in JGR.
> > >
> > > A lot of new material is added on satellite data, on diurnal cycle in
> > > free atmosphere, on time series of tropospheric temperature. But,
> > > SurfaceTemperature and Model sections are the same as they were in
> > > the Nature
> > > version. There is no sense to use different models and forcings,
> > > because(1) this will not change result, and because (2), as far as
> > > I know, such
> > > work has been done by Santer (not published, yet).
> > >
> > > I would be happy to know your opinion about current version of the
> > > paper.
> > > Alan is going to work on this manuscript in a few days. So, it
> > > would be
> > > great if you send your comments and corrections soon.
> > >
> > > Thank you. Kostya
> > >
> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> > > Dr. Konstantin Y. Vinnikov Office: (301) 405-5382
> > > Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Home: (301) 779-2970
> > > University of Maryland Fax: (301) 314-9482
> > > College Park, MD 20742 kostyaatXYZxyzos.umd.edu
> > >
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk