Tuesday, May 22, 2012


cc: Stefan Rahmstorf <rahmstorfatXYZxyzan-klima.de>, stocker@climate.unibe.ch, Malcolm Hughes <mhughesatXYZxyzr.arizona.edu>, "Raymond S. Bradley" <rbradleyatXYZxyz.umass.edu>, Caspar Ammann <ammannatXYZxyzr.edu>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Jonathan Overpeck <jtoatXYZxyzrizona.edu>
date: Fri, 02 Dec 2005 09:37:23 -0500
from: "Michael E. Mann" <mannatXYZxyzeo.psu.edu>
subject: Your recent article and Fox News
to: Juerg Luterbacher <juergatXYZxyzb.unibe.ch>, Heinz Wanner <wanneratXYZxyzb.unibe.ch>

Dear Juerg and Heinz,
I consider both of you friends, and so its a bit awkward to have to send this email.
Its probably not a surprise to you that many of us are disconcerted in the wording of the
abstract (the offending sentences provided below for those who not seen) in the recent
Quat. Sci. Rev article you were both co-authors on. I am surprised that the two of you
would sign on to this. Whle many of the scientific points are valid, the interpretation and
word choice is not objectively defensible. It isn't my purpose to get into technical
details here, though one obvious point is that greater variability may, in many cases,
actually indicate increased sensitivity to radiative forcing, yielding precisely the
opposite policy implication from the one you cite.
I think you need to see how this is already being played in the U.S. media:
Heinz in particular: I think you've been around long enough to know that this would play
right into the hands of the contrarians, so I'm particularly disappointed in your
complicity. This makes the job all that much more difficult for those of us who are trying
to fight the disinformation campaign. I *know* that neither of you will feel good about
So, what would it mean, if the reconstructions indicate a larger (Esper et al., 2002;
Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) or smaller (Jones et al., 1998; Mann et
al., 1999) temperature amplitude? We suggest that the former situation, i.e. enhanced
variability during pre-industrial times, would result in a redistribution of weight towards
the role of natural factors in forcing temperature changes, thereby relatively devaluing
the impact of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted scenarios. If that
turns out to be the case, agreements such as the Kyoto protocol that intend to reduce
emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, would be less effective than thought.
Michael E. Mann
Associate Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [2]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013


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