Tuesday, May 22, 2012

4489.txt

cc: Keith Briffa <k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
date: Fri, 17 Nov 2000 09:15:04 -0500
from: Edward Cook <drdendroatXYZxyzo.columbia.edu>
subject: New NAO recon
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

Hi Phil,

Here is the new DJFM NAO recon. It is in two forms. The LINK NAO2 recon is
based on extending the recon by stepping back in 25 year increments from
1750 and dropping out the shorter proxy records in the process. Then each
25 year extension is added to the beginning of the reconstruction (e.g.
1725-1749 is linked with 1750-1979, 1700-1724 is linked with 1725-1979,
...), with its variance adjusted to link in homogenously. This process is
illustrated in the attached PDF plot REC/RSQ.1826_PLT_PDF. The MEAN NAO2
recon is the average of all the recons using their entire periods (e.g.
1750-1979, 1725-1979, 1700-1979, ...) with their variances adjusted
accordingly. These two recons are ploted in REC1/REC2_1826.PLT_PDF for
comparison. Kalman filter comparisons of these recons with both your
extended SLP-only 1781-1995 NAO index and Luterbacher's mixed instrumental
index back to 1659 (plot KALMAN.JONES/LUT_1826_PLT_PDF) indicate that the
MEAN NAO2 is slightly better. I also compared Luterbacher's DJF NAO recon
with MEAN NAO2 over the period 1500-1658 and got generally good results
(significant agreement from 1500-1580 anyway). Finally, SITE.MAP_SITES_PDF
and SITE.MAP_BETAS_PDF show the locations of the proxies used and the most
important regression betas, respectively.

Cheers,

Ed

YEAR LINK NAO2 MEAN NAO2

1400 -0.119 -0.119
1401 -1.027 -1.027
1402 -0.430 -0.430
1403 -0.209 -0.209
1404 -0.373 -0.373
1405 0.184 0.184
1406 0.455 0.455
1407 -0.058 -0.058
1408 -0.200 -0.200
1409 -0.088 -0.088
1410 -1.035 -1.035
1411 -0.277 -0.277
1412 -0.814 -0.814
1413 0.663 0.663
1414 -0.343 -0.343
1415 -0.130 -0.130
1416 -0.978 -0.978
1417 0.076 0.076
1418 -0.129 -0.129
1419 -0.410 -0.410
1420 0.287 0.287
1421 -0.068 -0.068
1422 0.560 0.560
1423 -0.196 -0.196
1424 -0.037 -0.037
1425 -0.191 -0.191
1426 0.840 0.840
1427 -0.674 -0.674
1428 0.279 0.279
1429 0.256 0.256
1430 -0.476 -0.476
1431 -0.697 -0.697
1432 0.295 0.295
1433 -0.628 -0.628
1434 0.242 0.242
1435 -0.367 -0.367
1436 0.059 0.059
1437 -0.311 -0.311
1438 -0.004 -0.004
1439 -1.020 -1.020
1440 -0.420 -0.420
1441 -1.321 -1.321
1442 -0.144 -0.144
1443 0.638 0.638
1444 -0.241 -0.241
1445 0.522 0.522
1446 -0.286 -0.286
1447 -0.808 -0.808
1448 -1.045 -1.045
1449 0.184 0.184
1450 -1.035 -1.112
1451 -0.613 -0.600
1452 -0.494 -0.551
1453 0.080 -0.064
1454 -0.078 -0.028
1455 0.540 0.525
1456 0.756 0.849
1457 0.346 0.243
1458 -0.790 -0.839
1459 -0.017 -0.143
1460 0.082 0.138
1461 -0.616 -0.571
1462 -0.569 -0.604
1463 -0.975 -0.970
1464 -0.013 -0.096
1465 0.921 0.894
1466 -0.036 0.091
1467 -0.786 -0.487
1468 -0.280 -0.077
1469 -0.078 0.052
1470 -0.659 -0.533
1471 0.363 0.259
1472 -0.204 -0.397
1473 -0.161 -0.275
1474 0.180 0.215
1475 -1.599 -1.090
1476 -0.805 -0.772
1477 0.251 0.159
1478 0.940 1.162
1479 1.391 1.133
1480 -0.312 -0.222
1481 -0.524 -0.248
1482 0.320 0.019
1483 -0.150 -0.135
1484 0.188 -0.069
1485 0.356 0.666
1486 0.093 0.114
1487 -0.117 -0.239
1488 -0.466 -0.390
1489 -0.197 -0.265
1490 -0.644 -0.658
1491 -0.389 -0.337
1492 -1.082 -0.941
1493 1.339 1.408
1494 -0.135 -0.190
1495 -1.092 -0.979
1496 0.033 0.099
1497 0.715 0.952
1498 0.969 0.417
1499 -1.186 -1.024
1500 0.921 1.057
1501 -0.232 -0.453
1502 -0.506 -0.461
1503 -1.170 -1.562
1504 -0.169 -0.439
1505 -0.800 -0.748
1506 -0.301 -0.071
1507 0.062 0.233
1508 0.779 1.069
1509 1.258 1.578
1510 0.740 0.809
1511 -1.015 -0.812
1512 -0.373 -0.321
1513 -0.611 -0.842
1514 -0.676 -0.518
1515 0.839 1.390
1516 -0.051 -0.107
1517 0.402 0.485
1518 0.536 -0.005
1519 -0.567 -0.152
1520 0.279 0.443
1521 1.289 1.487
1522 -0.271 -0.261
1523 0.635 0.621
1524 -0.345 -0.273
1525 0.090 0.166
1526 0.719 1.056
1527 -0.134 0.112
1528 -0.270 0.211
1529 0.582 0.857
1530 0.054 -0.123
1531 -0.405 -0.197
1532 -0.901 -0.993
1533 -0.524 -0.330
1534 -0.020 -0.494
1535 -0.397 -0.174
1536 0.682 0.432
1537 -0.085 -0.148
1538 0.596 0.441
1539 -0.624 -0.467
1540 -0.282 0.184
1541 0.093 0.072
1542 0.245 0.396
1543 -0.015 -0.539
1544 -0.960 -0.888
1545 1.061 0.925
1546 -0.341 -0.493
1547 0.134 -0.009
1548 0.579 0.862
1549 -0.479 -0.261
1550 -0.521 -0.759
1551 -0.621 -0.534
1552 -0.112 -0.287
1553 0.126 0.362
1554 -0.473 -0.500
1555 0.197 0.134
1556 0.313 0.251
1557 0.072 0.198
1558 -0.053 -0.146
1559 -1.409 -1.412
1560 0.471 0.466
1561 0.035 0.078
1562 -0.438 -0.098
1563 -0.599 -0.433
1564 -0.840 -0.763
1565 -0.199 -0.298
1566 -0.551 -0.358
1567 -0.206 -0.470
1568 -0.588 -0.297
1569 0.290 0.009
1570 -0.082 -0.293
1571 -0.987 -0.684
1572 0.117 -0.048
1573 -0.961 -0.963
1574 0.379 0.254
1575 1.229 0.768
1576 0.387 0.439
1577 0.955 1.180
1578 1.027 1.316
1579 0.418 0.490
1580 -0.334 -0.733
1581 -0.485 -0.495
1582 0.908 0.443
1583 -0.161 -0.147
1584 -0.859 -0.659
1585 0.452 0.429
1586 -0.073 -0.235
1587 -1.090 -0.759
1588 0.942 0.963
1589 0.124 0.346
1590 -0.089 -0.317
1591 -0.423 -0.418
1592 -0.093 0.140
1593 -0.101 0.008
1594 -0.409 -0.401
1595 0.280 0.339
1596 0.279 0.151
1597 -0.881 -0.791
1598 -0.388 -0.678
1599 -0.298 -0.432
1600 0.449 0.550
1601 -0.547 -0.168
1602 -0.200 -0.073
1603 0.773 0.639
1604 -0.487 -0.538
1605 0.588 0.537
1606 0.812 0.698
1607 -0.027 0.301
1608 0.454 0.254
1609 -0.451 -0.436
1610 -0.218 -0.444
1611 0.607 0.799
1612 -1.269 -1.419
1613 1.591 1.702
1614 -0.357 -0.147
1615 -0.274 -0.211
1616 0.567 0.642
1617 0.440 0.835
1618 -0.554 -0.728
1619 -0.324 -0.455
1620 -0.491 -0.518
1621 0.039 -0.051
1622 0.096 0.014
1623 0.394 0.403
1624 -0.278 -0.021
1625 -0.772 -0.694
1626 0.500 0.524
1627 0.457 0.209
1628 -0.182 -0.775
1629 -0.120 -0.045
1630 0.665 0.176
1631 0.082 0.627
1632 1.114 0.311
1633 -0.427 -0.097
1634 0.740 0.292
1635 -0.600 -0.369
1636 0.563 0.286
1637 0.831 0.557
1638 -0.364 -0.850
1639 0.046 0.124
1640 0.283 0.206
1641 -1.245 -0.838
1642 -0.298 -0.296
1643 0.178 -0.181
1644 -0.015 0.304
1645 -0.245 -0.215
1646 -1.077 -0.860
1647 0.054 0.382
1648 -0.553 0.047
1649 -0.067 0.321
1650 -0.442 -0.843
1651 0.260 -0.129
1652 0.289 -0.139
1653 0.137 -0.002
1654 -0.017 -0.672
1655 -0.941 -0.601
1656 0.181 -0.315
1657 -0.207 -0.350
1658 -0.158 -0.108
1659 -0.597 -0.819
1660 0.267 0.487
1661 -0.271 0.960
1662 -0.027 0.112
1663 -1.023 -1.287
1664 0.182 0.046
1665 -0.181 0.034
1666 -0.940 -0.431
1667 -0.582 -0.477
1668 -0.905 -0.123
1669 -0.634 -0.612
1670 -0.199 -0.380
1671 0.261 0.065
1672 0.109 -0.083
1673 0.258 -0.014
1674 0.575 0.782
1675 -1.242 -0.986
1676 -0.089 -0.080
1677 -0.346 -0.067
1678 0.418 0.464
1679 -0.613 -0.538
1680 -0.121 0.856
1681 -0.296 -1.385
1682 -0.436 -0.447
1683 0.445 1.344
1684 -1.302 -1.749
1685 -0.411 0.249
1686 0.028 -0.296
1687 -0.448 0.123
1688 -0.783 -0.797
1689 0.609 0.104
1690 -0.024 0.506
1691 0.099 -0.358
1692 -0.889 -1.001
1693 1.216 1.059
1694 1.224 0.640
1695 -0.896 -0.530
1696 -1.054 -0.765
1697 -0.702 -1.013
1698 -0.859 -0.484
1699 -0.519 -0.525
1700 -0.317 -0.009
1701 0.040 0.065
1702 0.602 0.042
1703 0.528 0.504
1704 -0.649 -0.292
1705 0.206 -0.109
1706 -0.074 -0.109
1707 -0.523 0.041
1708 -1.405 -1.252
1709 -0.502 -0.102
1710 0.531 0.341
1711 0.433 0.275
1712 0.399 0.445
1713 -0.112 0.496
1714 0.148 0.617
1715 0.461 0.409
1716 0.129 0.457
1717 -0.068 0.238
1718 0.329 0.387
1719 -0.031 -0.080
1720 -0.240 0.062
1721 -0.321 -0.449
1722 0.118 0.217
1723 -0.304 -0.126
1724 -0.397 -0.120
1725 0.803 0.440
1726 -0.075 -0.400
1727 -0.162 -0.052
1728 -0.265 -0.375
1729 0.058 0.079
1730 0.208 -0.292
1731 -0.343 -0.370
1732 0.033 0.012
1733 -0.099 0.515
1734 0.392 0.468
1735 -0.946 -0.848
1736 -0.633 -0.180
1737 -0.270 -0.149
1738 0.854 1.145
1739 0.335 0.169
1740 0.229 0.143
1741 -0.773 -0.170
1742 0.088 0.133
1743 -0.072 -0.157
1744 0.970 1.433
1745 -0.108 -0.317
1746 -0.650 -0.625
1747 -0.581 -0.296
1748 -0.797 -0.840
1749 0.266 0.118
1750 0.536 0.491
1751 -0.090 -0.595
1752 -0.431 -0.712
1753 0.804 1.134
1754 -0.804 -0.722
1755 -0.351 -0.337
1756 0.002 -0.248
1757 -0.338 -0.808
1758 -0.841 -0.295
1759 0.590 0.399
1760 -0.442 -0.731
1761 -0.175 -0.190
1762 0.331 -0.159
1763 -0.737 -0.738
1764 0.311 0.243
1765 -0.011 -0.169
1766 -1.012 -0.812
1767 -0.674 -0.850
1768 -0.990 -0.848
1769 0.244 0.041
1770 -0.084 0.102
1771 -0.182 -0.315
1772 -0.970 -0.941
1773 0.477 0.391
1774 -0.110 -0.247
1775 0.585 0.471
1776 0.299 0.570
1777 0.525 0.365
1778 -0.547 -0.660
1779 0.346 0.788
1780 -1.447 -0.907
1781 0.261 0.568
1782 0.013 0.277
1783 0.462 0.454
1784 -1.414 -1.593
1785 0.051 -0.185
1786 -0.414 -0.378
1787 -0.198 -0.129
1788 -0.477 -0.981
1789 -0.242 -0.134
1790 -0.401 0.327
1791 -0.189 0.016
1792 -0.441 -0.157
1793 0.505 0.646
1794 -0.169 0.204
1795 -0.037 0.082
1796 0.766 0.675
1797 -0.240 0.033
1798 -0.140 -0.161
1799 0.144 -0.020
1800 -1.005 -0.986
1801 0.812 1.024
1802 0.478 0.445
1803 -0.295 -0.654
1804 -0.156 -0.054
1805 -0.043 -0.097
1806 -0.761 -0.233
1807 0.171 0.064
1808 -0.078 -0.269
1809 0.209 0.167
1810 -0.424 -0.778
1811 0.151 0.265
1812 -1.051 -0.963
1813 -0.174 0.256
1814 -0.264 -0.477
1815 1.241 0.936
1816 -0.303 -0.204
1817 0.815 1.012
1818 -0.741 -0.670
1819 -0.598 -0.258
1820 -0.147 0.359
1821 -0.255 -0.203
1822 0.308 0.034
1823 0.277 0.253
1824 0.070 0.347
1825 0.201 0.065
1826 -0.063 0.040
1827 -0.922 -0.978
1828 0.789 0.679
1829 -1.422 -1.285
1830 0.199 -0.103
1831 -0.452 -0.364
1832 -0.117 -0.311
1833 -0.663 -0.524
1834 0.683 0.541
1835 -0.405 -0.683
1836 -0.356 0.168
1837 -1.890 -1.591
1838 -0.106 -0.334
1839 -0.577 -0.211
1840 0.023 0.125
1841 -0.346 -0.276
1842 -0.411 -0.225
1843 0.484 0.309
1844 0.407 0.311
1845 -0.325 -0.460
1846 0.130 -0.085
1847 -0.637 -0.536
1848 0.035 0.106
1849 -0.217 -0.080
1850 -0.139 0.190
1851 -0.308 -0.318
1852 -0.049 0.165
1853 -1.000 -0.809
1854 0.456 0.535
1855 -1.153 -1.053
1856 -0.216 -0.335
1857 -0.283 -0.431
1858 0.557 1.024
1859 0.117 -0.059
1860 -0.204 -0.541
1861 0.268 0.217
1862 -0.464 0.176
1863 -0.234 -0.064
1864 0.165 -0.073
1865 -0.173 -0.075
1866 0.707 0.801
1867 -0.090 0.048
1868 0.249 0.346
1869 0.260 0.069
1870 -0.990 -0.719
1871 -0.885 -0.910
1872 -0.310 -0.447
1873 -0.774 -0.550
1874 0.386 0.383
1875 -0.518 -0.396
1876 -0.559 -0.373
1877 -0.466 0.147
1878 0.552 0.607
1879 -1.291 -1.173
1880 0.477 0.401
1881 -0.351 -0.499
1882 1.346 1.301
1883 0.129 0.233
1884 0.177 0.175
1885 0.036 -0.296
1886 -0.318 -0.350
1887 -0.356 0.012
1888 -0.177 -0.200
1889 0.197 -0.093
1890 -0.156 0.024
1891 0.036 0.300
1892 -0.378 -0.010
1893 -0.256 -0.662
1894 0.005 0.189
1895 -0.919 -0.917
1896 -0.358 -0.240
1897 -0.017 0.170
1898 0.552 0.609
1899 -0.895 -0.469
1900 -1.526 -1.283
1901 -0.945 -0.610
1902 -0.178 -0.294
1903 1.697 1.597
1904 -0.828 -0.608
1905 0.807 0.816
1906 0.624 0.309
1907 0.686 0.285
1908 0.117 0.656
1909 -0.320 -0.086
1910 -0.245 0.121
1911 -0.498 -0.945
1912 -0.436 -0.545
1913 0.442 0.267
1914 0.190 -0.169
1915 -0.263 -0.217
1916 0.210 0.279
1917 -1.498 -1.551
1918 0.139 0.186
1919 0.102 -0.054
1920 1.544 0.858
1921 0.300 -0.526
1922 -0.240 -0.003
1923 1.227 0.929
1924 -1.107 -0.550
1925 0.610 0.624
1926 -0.255 -0.361
1927 0.465 0.492
1928 0.076 -0.301
1929 -0.697 -0.894
1930 0.319 0.065
1931 -1.096 -0.672
1932 -0.200 0.103
1933 0.664 0.446
1934 0.068 0.486
1935 -0.001 0.176
1936 -1.444 -1.496
1937 0.792 0.831
1938 0.459 0.519
1939 -0.433 -0.200
1940 -0.863 -1.241
1941 -0.480 -0.604
1942 -0.938 -0.909
1943 0.543 0.260
1944 -0.667 -0.667
1945 1.462 1.675
1946 0.721 0.318
1947 -2.123 -1.884
1948 0.573 0.767
1949 0.241 -0.070
1950 0.305 0.821
1951 -0.229 0.044
1952 -0.535 -0.783
1953 -0.155 0.063
1954 -0.136 -0.210
1955 -1.450 -1.258
1956 -0.586 -0.616
1957 1.708 1.854
1958 -1.435 -1.298
1959 -0.249 -0.714
1960 -1.141 -0.867
1961 1.107 0.932
1962 -0.931 -0.913
1963 -1.882 -1.583
1964 -0.231 -0.459
1965 -0.895 -0.407
1966 0.211 0.280
1967 1.011 0.806
1968 -0.148 -0.019
1969 -1.538 -1.503
1970 -0.051 0.062
1971 -0.012 -0.173
1972 -0.337 0.131
1973 1.619 1.267
1974 0.673 0.805
1975 0.283 0.283
1976 0.237 0.237
1977 -0.307 -0.307
1978 -0.699 -0.699
1979 -1.419 -1.419

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SITE.MAP_SITES_PDF.pdf"

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\SITE.MAP_BETAS_PDF.pdf"

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\REC=RSQ.1826_PLT_PDF.pdf"

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\KALMAN.JONES=LUT_1826_PLT_PDF.p"

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\REC1=REC2_1826.PLT_PDF.pdf"

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\KALMAN.REC2_1826_1500_PLT_PDF.p"
==================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar
Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964 USA
Phone: 1-845-365-8618
Fax: 1-845-365-8152
Email: drdendroatXYZxyzo.columbia.edu
==================================

No comments:

Post a Comment