Monday, May 21, 2012


cc:, "'Raper, Sarah '" <>, "'Hulme, Mike '" <>, "''" <>
date: Fri, 2 Jun 2000 16:34:13 -0600 (Mountain Daylight Time)
from: "Tom M.L. Wigley" <>
subject: Re: Scenario Evaluation Tool
to: "Noguer, Maria" <>


Putting MAGICC or SCENGEN on the web is up to Mike Hulme and Sarah
Raper. It may be possible.

By the way, I don't know what you mean by "scenarios for
...emissions...under the Kyoto Protocol". The Protocol only goes out to
around 2010, and what happens after that is clearly not "*under* the Kyoto
Protocol". Also, as far as I can see, the SRES scenarios are not
consistent with ratification of the Protocol. The issue arises then as to
just what scenarios you are talking about.

In my 1998 GRL paper on the Protocol, I considered three different
post-Protocol possibilities. I also simplified things by assuming that
the Protocol was met using CO2 alone. It would be possible to dream up a
bunch of other post-Protocol scenarios (incorporating SRES-based
information) and put them in the MAGICC/SCENGEN library. In my view, if
one left it up to the policy makers to dream up their own scenarios, this
could be a disaster.

I don't like criticising you all, but it looks to me as if you haven't
really thought this through fully. I would keep the options open; but
don't move too hastily.


On Fri, 2 Jun 2000, Noguer, Maria wrote:

> Dear colleagues,
> Some of you know that a subject was raised in the margins of a SBSTA
> meeting, namely would it be possible for IPCC to produce or endorse a tool
> which would allow the policy-making community to study quickly and simply
> the effects of various scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions, covered under
> the Kyoto Protocol, to the extent possible. It seems that it would help the
> negotiations to have a first order idea of what would be the implications
> for some key climate indicators, such as global surface temperature and sea
> level rise, of different reductions measures. To this extent, and bearing in
> mind all the problems that the endorsement of such a tool would encompass,
> we are approaching the Simple model community with the following question:
> Would it be possible for you to put your model on the Web, in such a way
> that anyone could run it interactively?
> In this way,
> a) The policymaker could have an idea of the range and uncertainty that
> different models would produce
> b) No model in particular would be given the IPCC "stamp"
> Please let me know your thoughts about this idea.
> Many thanks,
> Maria
> **********************************************************************
> Dr. Maria Noguer
> IPCC WGI Technical Support Unit
> Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
> The Met Office
> London Road
> Bracknell
> Berkshire, RG12 2SY
> UK
> Tel: +44 (0) 1344 854938
> Fax: +44 (0) 1344 856912
> e-mail:
> **********************************************************************

Tom M.L. Wigley
Senior Scientist
ACACIA Program Director
National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307-3000
Phone: 303-497-2690
Fax: 303-497-2699

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