Wednesday, May 23, 2012


date: Thu, 16 Dec 2004 15:43:38 -0700
from: Jonathan Overpeck <>
subject: Re: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] IPCC last 2000 years data
to: Keith Briffa <>

Keith and your section team - Ricardo, Olga, Fortunat, David,
Ramesh, Zhang, Dan, Eystein and Valerie -

Good to hear from you! I'm sorry to hear the news about the lack of
help - given your previous appeal for help, I would have thought
you'd have it by now. I hope this email helps, but just to be safe, I
suggest sending out another email with specific requests for members
of your team.

I've asked Julie to come up with something good (short) for tropical
oceans (corals for Pacific and Indian, Cariaco Basin - Black et al,
and Haug et al - both attached- for Atlantic. She can wrap ENSO in
perhaps too. Have attached a recent paper by Mann, Cane and others
that is relevant. Will work with her to do this soon - i.e., I will
hold baby!

What about drought? I'm sure Dan O will cover African drought of last
2000 (e.g., Lake Nivasha). The attached Haug paper links to the
Central American story too. Can you get something good from Ed Cook -
at least his latest Science paper - for North American Drought? I can
add to that once I see it - lots of other lit to cite - or you can
use Woodhouse and Overpeck BAMS (will send if you need).

For the Arctic, I know you're wrapped in to Konrad Hughen's efforts
to update Overpeck et al 97 Science. If you want me to get him to
give us the latest I will. He too is about to be a Dad for the second
time (copy cat!), so is going slower than hoped - paper will be out
for us to use, however.

Will send something to Ramesh on monsoon in next email. Too many
attachments on this one.

Let Eystein and me know if there is more we can do to help. T'is the season.

Thanks! Peck

>it seems I am struggling because of lack of specific response from
>coauthors and now trying to do this without the detailed regional
>input . Am here now working on the Spaghetti Figure discussion and
>having made late decision to address criticisms of "Hockey stick"
>directly (explicitly) .
>Am working on it but think will need at least a week. Need to push
>others to provide the regional detailed input but will concentrate
>on large-scale now. Tried to ring you but no answer
>>Old email from Keith....
>>>Friends and authors ( especially Ricardo, Olga, Fortunat, David,
>>>Ramesh, Zhang, Dan, Eystein and Valerie)
>>>Now back from travels (until Wednesday when off to Austria for a few days)
>>>I thought it best to suggest a break down for the writing of the
>>>data section for the last 2000 years of the IPCC palaeoclimate
>>>chapter. Please see the outline produced at the meeting. We have 4
>>>IPCC pages . I will write a short intro linking to the
>>>instrumental data with links to Chapters 3-5. I will coach this in
>>>a general introduction to this section that addresses the points
>>>listed in the initial notes ( namely how we use the various high ,
>>>and few low, resolution data to construct regional and large-scale
>>>temperature variability , and where possible, gain insight into
>>>hydrologic variability. I will say we use models to get insight
>>>into methodology and to explore regional coverage and seasonality
>>>issues and we use control and forced model runs to look at
>>>sensitivity and detection issues , but also use date to test model
>>>variability and sensitivity .
>>>I can first go at the NH (SH) Spaghetti diagram discussion and
>>>hopefully you will pick up the regional aspects of the temperature
>>>and precipitation (moisture) variability .
>>>Rather than me say - I would like you to come back with the major
>>>areas you will cover , but these may best be done in terms of
>>>climatologically meaningful regions - ie relating to the ENSO,
>>>NAM, PDO , AAO, monsoon areas - then we could fill in the
>>>remaining regions if significant non overlap in areas is apparent
>>>(Eurasia, non-monsoon china etc) . We do not want a list of every
>>>paper ever written , but a selection of (the better) work that you
>>>feel has regional relevance (and some length presumably). THe
>>>other alternative is just to divide up the world to our own
>>>regions and then discuss the climate indices separately. This
>>>would likely be easier to do . Let me know what you think. Either
>>>way , we also should have a specific discussion of forcings at
>>>high resolution , and Fortunat, Valerie could cover solar and
>>>volcanic , perhaps Eystein discussing what evidence there is for
>>>THC change . The knotty issue of THC versus NAO and the link to
>>>model theories/models could go here - or perhaps later in the
>>>section ? Davis what say you about this? The same is true
>>>of ENSO links to terrestrial precipitation patterns and
>>>I don't like the idea of dealing wit quasi periodicities
>>>separately , but rather wit the regional discussions eg North
>>>American drought. The question of LIA , MWP will come up in the
>>>large scale average discussion but you can also address it in the
>>>regional discussions , but in a critical and quantitative way. I
>>>would like to see the evidence for extremmes/abrupt change from
>>>the regional syntheses and then see if we have enough to define
>>>and discuss the issue separately. Olga could you pick up on the
>>>glacial variations (perhaps with links to models also?)
>>>So come back to me asap to let me know impressions and
>>>regional/variable focus you all wish to pick up. Ricardo will
>>>obviously do North South linkages as per the PEP1 transect , but
>>>what about along PEP2 and 3/ WE may have to pick this up in the
>>>light of the regional data. Can you also let me know if/who you
>>>might be asking to help with writing . Peck , I would still rather
>>>have Mike Mann in , so what is the story here - can I ask him?
>>>Suggestions for summary Figures still welcome - I would like to
>>>have a High lat , mid lat , low lat transect type figure for
>>>temperature , possibly along each PEP transect - with longest
>>>instrumental data . A forcing diagram is also a must - but could
>>>combine Holocene and "blow up " last 2000 years.
>>>Best wishes
>>>Professor Keith Briffa,
>>>Climatic Research Unit
>>>University of East Anglia
>>>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>>>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>>>Fax: +44-1603-507784
>>>Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list
>>Jonathan T. Overpeck
>>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>Professor, Department of Geosciences
>>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences
>>Mail and Fedex Address:
>>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
>>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
>>University of Arizona
>>Tucson, AZ 85721
>>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
>>fax: +1 520 792-8795
>Professor Keith Briffa,
>Climatic Research Unit
>University of East Anglia
>Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
>Phone: +44-1603-593909
>Fax: +44-1603-507784

Jonathan T. Overpeck
Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
Professor, Department of Geosciences
Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences

Mail and Fedex Address:

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth
715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
direct tel: +1 520 622-9065
fax: +1 520 792-8795

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