Wednesday, May 23, 2012

4621.txt

date: Mon, 15 Jan 2007 10:35:49 -0500
from: "raymond s. bradley" <rbradleyatXYZxyz.umass.edu>
subject: 1990 figure
to: p.jones@uea.ac.uk, mannatXYZxyz.edu

Hi Phil:
I've made some edits and comments on the attached. More generally, I think you need to
comment on the x & y axis scales as used by later authors. For example, in the figure used
originally, it went through ~1950; the figure Stefan circulated used by German schools
changes the same scale to 2000, thereby deliberately ignoring the recent warming. They
also change the y-axis scale, I think. And nobody ever said if the original units were in
F or C!
I spoke to Jack Eddy, by the way. He has lung cancer but seems to be doing OK with
chemotherapy, and he sounded pretty chipper. He said he did not recall where he got his
Earth Quest figure, but it may have been from Tom Webb (see Global Changes of the Past, p.
61 on) or from Lamb.
There is another side to this which you don't mention --the first attempt to expand by
factors of 10, different so-called "global temperatures" was in the 1975 GARP report,
Understanding Climatic Change. In that, for the last 1000 years they used Lamb's eastern
European winter severity index. This version then got reproduced and further mangled in
several later publications, as shown in Tom's chapter. I am as guilty as the rest--I made
up something from a corner of my brain on p.33 of my paleoclimatology book! But I did say
schematic...!
I'm not sure why people think this is such a sensitive topic (vis a vis the IPCC). Apart
from the fact that they had Chris Dork Folland writing the paleo section, the first IPCC
was a good starting point, and we've clearly come a long way since then. Just because
people refer back to that for their own purposes (ie Wegman) does not reflect on the IPCC
process as it has evolved.
Any day in Vienna is OK for me. I'll be there (with Jane) from Monday-Thursday (leaving
Friday am).
Look forward to getting together there....
Ray

Raymond S. Bradley
Director, Climate System Research Center*
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts
Morrill Science Center
611 North Pleasant Street
AMHERST, MA 01003-9297
Tel: 413-545-2120
Fax: 413-545-1200
*Climate System Research Center: 413-545-0659
<[1] http://www.paleoclimate.org>
Paleoclimatology Book Web Site: [2]http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html
Publications (download .pdf files):
[3]http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/bradleypub.html Attachment Converted:
"c:\eudora\attach\ipcc1990diagram.doc"

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