date: Mon, 04 Mar 2002 12:03:13 +0000
from: "Andy Haines" <Andy.HainesatXYZxyztm.ac.uk>
subject: Fwd: Re: FW:
You may be interested to see this from Jon Patz quoting Cynthia
Rosenzweig. Have you had a chance to look at the data for East Africa
AndyReceived: from postbox.lshtm.ac.uk
by s-nst5.lshtm.ac.uk; Mon, 04 Mar 2002 11:59:43 +0000
Received: from localhost (localhost [127.0.0.1])
by postbox.lshtm.ac.uk (Postfix) with ESMTP id A639A40221
for <Andy.Haines@lshtm.ac.uk>; Mon, 4 Mar 2002 11:58:58 +0000 (GMT)
Received: from smtp.comcast.net (smtp.comcast.net [188.8.131.52])
by postbox.lshtm.ac.uk (Postfix) with ESMTP id 2FDBC401BC
for <Andy.Haines@lshtm.ac.uk>; Mon, 4 Mar 2002 11:55:08 +0000 (GMT)
Received: from [192.168.123.178]
by mtaout02.icomcast.net (iPlanet Messaging Server 5.1 (built Feb 6 2002))
with ESMTP id <0GSG009UC6H3D1atXYZxyzout02.icomcast.net> for
Andy.Haines@lshtm.ac.uk; Mon, 04 Mar 2002 06:55:52 -0500 (EST)
Date: Mon, 04 Mar 2002 07:01:32 -0500
From: JONATHAN PATZ <jpatzatXYZxyzph.edu>
Subject: Re: FW:
To: Andy Haines <Andy.HainesatXYZxyztm.ac.uk>, P.Martens@ICIS.unimaas.nl,
Content-type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii; format=flowed
X-Virus-Scanned: by AMaViS
According to Cynthia, there are strong warming trends since 1970.
I've asked her to now specifically look at the 4 sites of Hay et al.
At 11:36 AM +0000 3/4/02, Andy Haines wrote:
>I agree that others should be encouraged to send in letters
>independently. It would certainly be worth asking Steve Lindsay to do so
>- Pim are you in touch with him ?
>I will discuss the matter with Tony when he is in London this week. I
>have also alerted Mike Hulme at the Tyndall Centre and he is looking at
>the time trends in East African climate to see if there are any trends
>>>> JONATHAN PATZ <jpatzatXYZxyzph.edu> 04/03/2002 11:33:16 >>>
>I am putting together a "Brief Communication" based on historical
>climate records for the region (Cynthia Rosenzweig) and longitudinal
>malaria/temperature analysis from Ethiopia (Assefa Tulu & David
>Bradley), and Kenya (Andrew & myself). I know that you and Steve have
>done the modeling for Zimbabwe, but do you have longitudinal
>historical malaria/temperature analysis completed? If so, that may
>be of use for our paper. In this particular paper, we will not use
>any future projections -only historical data.
>(Andy, Tony or Pim: Do you know the Nature editors? Might it be
>worthwhile for some of us to ALSO write in letters to the editor
>(much different from a "Brief Communication" with data and peer
>review). I am focusing all my efforts on the Brief Communication.
>But don't you think others should be encouraged to send in letters -I
>suspect Steve Lindsay and others might already have done so, no?)
>At 9:23 AM +0100 3/4/02, P.MartensatXYZxyzS.unimaas.nl wrote:
>>Thanks for sending me the Hay et al. paper (Simon emailed it to me as
>>I am becoming very tired of this - almost deliberately -
>>of reality. There most be some sort of bias also at Nature and
>>that they publish these articles.
>>However, I feel the need for a reply, but I understood from Andrew
>>several of you are also thinking about a response. It would be good to
>>forces, so let me know what the status of your reply is and how I can
>>contribute to that.
>>All the best
>>From: Githeko, Andrew [mailto:AGitheko@kisian.mimcom.net]
>>Sent: 03 March 2002 08:51
>>Thanks. I think our paper has solid evidence that indeed climate
>>has an effect on malaria epidemics. Jonathan Patz, Tony and Andrew
>>are all thinking about a response. Please get in touch with Jonathan
>>contribution. This would be very helpful. I will also be contributing
>>paragraph to the response.
>>A pity we shall not see you in Kisumu. Sander is arriving on Wednesday
>>to my surprise Petra is also around.
>Jonathan A. Patz, MD, MPH, Assistant Professor and Director
>Program on Health Effects of Global Environmental Change
>Department of Environmental Health Sciences
>Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health
>615 N. Wolfe St.
>Baltimore, MD 21205
Jonathan A. Patz, MD, MPH, Assistant Professor and Director
Program on Health Effects of Global Environmental Change
Department of Environmental Health Sciences
Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health
615 N. Wolfe St.
Baltimore, MD 21205