Friday, June 1, 2012

4772.txt

date: Tue, 06 Oct 1998 12:53:12 +0100
from: "Jenkins, Geoff" <gjjenkinsatXYZxyzo.gov.uk>
subject: FW: coP4 handout
to: "'m.hulme@uea.ac.uk'" <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>



> -----Original Message-----
> From: Jenkins, Geoff
> Sent: 06 October 1998 09:55
> To: 'a.white@ite.ac.uk'; 'nwa1@soton.ac.uk'; 'parrym@aol.com';
> 'robert14@mdx.ac.uk'; 't.mcmichael@LSHTM.ac.uk'
> Subject: coP4 handout
>
> Below is the text for the introduction, summary and further info sections
> of the CoP4 handout. I would be grateful if you would let me have
> corrections etc as soon as possible. If you want me to put in a website
> address please let me know it, otherwise I will omit it.
> The draft of your text and diagrams is currently with DETR for final
> agreeement.
>
> Thanks for all your help
> <<COP4SUM>> Geoff Jenkins
>
> Introduction
>
> Recognising the threat of future climate change and its impacts, the UK
> Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions established in
> 1997 a series of linked research projects which predict changes in climate
> over the next decades and assess the potential global impact in key
> sectors. These sectors covered natural ecosystems, water resources, food
> supply and coastal areas. The first report from this study was published
> in December 1997 as "Climate change and its impacts".
>
> Since then, the Hadley Centre has generated a new scenario of climate
> change based on predictions from a new model, HadCM3. The scenario assumes
> an increase in greenhouse gases according to the IPCC "business-as-usual"
> emissions projections, without changes in sulphate aerosols (which make
> little difference to the global temperature rise but could affect regional
> patterns of change). As in 1997, assessment models have been used to look
> at the impacts arising from this new scenario, and the range of sectors
> has been extended to include human health - specifically, malaria.
>
> This report can be considered as an update of the one issued in December
> 1997, and much of the background, assumptions and caveats discussed in
> that report are still current. The contributions to research from the UK
> Public Meteorological Service programme are fully acknowledged.
>
> Summary
>
> * The 1997/98 El Nino was the most extreme on record. Global mean
> surface temperature in 1998 is likley to exceed that in 1997 and be the
> highest since global instrumental records began.
>
> * Predictions of climate change have been made using an improved climate
> model without arbitrary corrections. IPCC-projected increases in
> greenhouse gas emissions result in a warming of about 3�C over the next
> 100 years. Based on a revised projection of human-made sulphur emissions,
> sulphate aerosols make little difference to this global prediction.
>
> * Comparisons of model simulations and observations, based on new
> statistical techniques, indicate that human-made made greenhouse gases
> have contributed substantially to global warming over the past 50 years.
> Initial results also show that sensitivity of the climate model to changes
> in greenhouse gases is not dissimilar to that of the real climate system.
>
> * The new climate model has a better representation of ocean currents.
> Increases in greenhouse gases result in a slowing down of the North
> Atlantic ocean circulation, although not as rapidly as with some other
> models.
>
> * Based on the new climate scenario for the 2050s, tropical forests will
> die back in many areas of northern S America. In other areas of the world
> tropical grassland will be transformed to desert or temperate grassland.
>
> * Vegetation will absorb CO2 at the rate of 2-3 GtC/y in the first half
> of the next century. Due to vegetation dieback, this will later become a
> source of 2 GtC/y and will enhance CO2 build up in the atmosphere.
>
> * Water resource stresses in many of the poorest countries will be
> enhanced by climate change. Due to climate change alone, some 66 million
> extra people will live in countries with water stress, and some 170
> million people will live in countries which are extremely stressed.
>
> * Climate change is expected to increase crop yields in high and
> mid-latitude countries such as Canada and Europe, but lead to decreases in
> lower latitudes. The food system will accommodate to regional variations
> in yields at the global level, with production, prices and risk of hunger
> being relatively unaffected (Matt: is 30M more at risk of hunger
> unaffected???).
>
> * Some regions, particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics, will be most
> adversely affected, experiencing marked reductions in yield, decreases in
> production and increases in the risk of hunger. In Africa, for example, X
> (Matt - absolute number pse - instead of the 18%) million additional
> people will be at risk of hunger due to climate change alone by the 2050s.
>
>
> * The predicted 21cm sea level rise by the 2050s, and assuming no changes
> in coastal protection, some 50 million additional people will be at risk
> annually. Even with evolving protection sea level rise will each year put
> an additional 20 million people at risk of flooding. South and south-east
> Asia are most vulnerable.
>
> * Growth in population alone will increase the number of people at risk
> of malaria; climate change will add to this increase, particularly in
> areas where currently the disease is not endemic.
>
> Further information
> Further information on the topics covered in this report can be obtained
> from the contacts below.
>
> Climate change science
> * Dr Geoff Jenkins, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research,
> The Met.Office: gjjenkinsatXYZxyzo.gov.uk
>
> Website:www.meto.gov.uk/sec5/sec5pg1.html
>
> * Dr Mike Hulme, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia:
> m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>
> Website: www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link
>
>
> Impacts on natural vegetation
> * Dr Andy White, NERC Institute of Terrestrial Ecology:
> a.whiteatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>
> Website: ???
>
>
> Impacts on coastal areas
> * Dr Robert Nicholls, University of Middlesex: r.nichollsatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>
> Website: ????
>
>
> Impacts on food supply
> Professor Martin Parry, Jackson Environmental Institute, University
> College London: parrymatXYZxyz.com
>
> Website: ????
>
> Impacts on water resources
> Dr Nigel Arnell, University of Southampton: n.w.arnellatXYZxyzon.ac.uk
>
> Website: ???
>
> Impacts on Human Health
> Professor Tony McMichael, London School of Hygeine and Tropical Medicine:
> t.mcmichaelatXYZxyzTM.ac.uk
>
> Website: ????
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Content-disposition: attachment; filename=COP4SUM
Content-Location: ATT-0-BBD4ED23F95CD211AC0F00104B428DD2-C OP4SUM
Content-type: application/octet-stream; name="COP4SUM"

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\COP4SUM"

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