Friday, June 1, 2012

4783.txt

cc: <Chris.PookatXYZxyz.gov.uk>, <Joshua.Mandell@fco.gov.uk>, <Christian.TurneratXYZxyz.gov.uk>, <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, <parrymlatXYZxyz.com>, <Cathy.JohnsonatXYZxyzra.gsi.gov.uk>
date: Fri, 12 Sep 2003 17:23:36 +0100
from: Hans.VerolmeatXYZxyz.gov.uk
subject: WSJ: New Global-Warming Study (Science: Vinnkov et al.)
to: <david.warrilowatXYZxyzra.gsi.gov.uk>, <maria.nogueratXYZxyzRA.GSI.GOV.UK>, <peter.stottatXYZxyzoffice.com>, <gjjenkinsatXYZxyzo.gov.uk>, <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk> , <simon.brownatXYZxyzoffice.com>

This story will likely hit your shore on the weekend.
Vinnikov and Grody write in today's issue of Science that tropospheric temperatures have
recently increased .22-26 degrees per decade. The number contradicts earlier studies and
has come under instant attack. Thought you would appreciate to see a copy of the offending
article.

Which side of the temperature line do we come down?
HANS <<EXCHANGE(SE).RA-ATT>>
] Hans JH Verolme, senior environment adviser
] British Embassy, 3100 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
] Washington, DC 20008, USA
] tel. +1 (202) 588-6879 fax. +1 (202) 588-7915
] mobile +1 (202) 213-8768
] FCO FTN 8430-6879

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Submitted on June 11, 2003
Accepted on September 3, 2003
Global Warming Trend of Mean Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellites
Konstantin Y. Vinnikov^ 1* Norman C. Grody^ 2
^1 Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
^2 NOAA/ NESDIS, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Spring, MD 20746, USA.
^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: kostyaatXYZxyzos.umd.edu
<[1]mailto:kostya@atmos.umd.edu>.
We have analyzed the global tropospheric temperature for 1978-2002^ using passive microwave
sounding data from the NOAA series of^ polar orbiters and the EOS/Aqua satellite. To
accurately retrieve^ the climatic trend we combined the satellite data with an analytic^
model of temperature that contains three different time scales:^ a linear trend and
functions that define the seasonal and diurnal^ cycles. Our analysis shows a trend of
+0.22-0.26 K/10yr, consistent^ with the global warming trend derived from surface
meteorological^ stations.^

Wall Street Journal: New Global-Warming Study Sets Off a Scientific Dispute
By ANTONIO REGALADO
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
A testy scientific dispute has broken out over a new study indicating significant signs of
global warming in the Earth's lower atmosphere.

The degree of warming in the troposphere -- the region where clouds form -- is a key
battleground in the highly politicized debate over global climate change.

While past studies had found little or no warming in the troposphere, a new analysis of
satellite observations being published Friday in the journal Science calculates that
temperatures in the lower atmosphere have increased about 0.5 degree Fahrenheit per decade
since 1978.

The findings, by Konstantin Vinnikov of the University of Maryland and Norman Grody of the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, are consistent with some warming
predictions but contradict two prior analyses of the satellite readings.

Scientists involved in the earlier work said they believe the Science report has glaring
errors, and questioned its publication. "It just adds noise to the whole debate," said
Frank Wentz of Remote Sensing Systems Inc., a Santa Rosa, Calif., company that analyzes
satellite data for the government. Remote Sensing previously found about half as much
warming.

The competing findings are based on identical measurements taken by orbiting weather
satellites, which can measure heat emitted by the atmosphere. However, the instrument's
readings are difficult to interpret, because of changing orbits and gradual degradation of
the instruments over time.

The conflicting results are caused by differences in how such effects are accounted for,
said John Christy, director of Earth systems science at the University of Alabama,
Huntsville. Dr. Christy went so far as to say he believed the journal had a strong bias in
favor of global warming.

Ginger Pinholster, a spokesperson for Science, said "the allegation of an editorial bias is
baseless and without merit" but indicated the magazine intended to invite critics to submit
a technical note identifying any errors.

Dr. Christy was the first to measure tropospheric warming using satellite data in 1990. His
analyses have indicated almost no warming, a result that has been widely cited by
politicians and others opposed to new environmental rules to limit emissions of greenhouse
gases.

Greenhouse gases, produced by the burning of fossil fuels by automobiles, factories and
other sources, are accumulating in the atmosphere where they trap heat, like a blanket.
Models of climate behavior predict the Earth could warm by several degrees over the next
century, although the troposphere results remain a major question mark in such predictions.

Solving the troposphere riddle has emerged as a priority for the Bush administration, which
cited the issue in a recent strategic plan for U.S. climate science.

Write to Antonio Regalado at antonio.regaladoatXYZxyz.com <[2]mailto:antonio.regalado@wsj.com>
Updated September 12, 2003


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Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\Science Vinnikov - Grody Sept 03.pdf"

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