Sunday, June 3, 2012

4875.txt

date: Mon, 26 Mar 2007 10:48:53 +0100
from: "Mitchell, John FB \(Chief Scientist\)" <john.f.mitchellatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: Awful Ch 4 programme
to: "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

Thanks Phil

Mark Galliani also spotted this and corrections are in hand
You are right , there is lot more we could add- I chose what I thought
werefive of th ekey issues and tried to keep it short and simple

Gareth Jones can give chapter and verse on the solar curve ( I have
asked our press office to incude some basic information on source)

"I should have said what the source exactly was.
Solanki and Krivova 2003 is a reconstruction based on sunspots. The 11
year cycle of sunspots is scaled to match the recent satellite record to
obtain the 11 year cycle component into the past. The mean cycle
amplitude is used to obtain the underlying longer term variations,
scaled to match estimates of Maunder Minimum to present day change in
solar irradiance as deduced from observations of stars. It is this
latter stage which recent work suggests is much lower than previously
thought.
Yes the last 30 years does come from satellite data. PMOD is the one
reconstruction from satellites by "Physikalisch-Meteorologisches
Observatorium Davos" as shown in Frohlich papers (as in Frolich and Lean
fame). There are other satellite reconstructions (see latest IPCC chap"

I have not mentioned the CH4 program deliberately- as it happens, people
think I am an adviser to the program (NO!)- see CH4s website on the
programme and follow "ask the expert"

They had over 800 questions-- 20 will be selected and I will chose 8-10
- don't when that will be on the site


John


Professor John Mitchell OBE FRS Chief Scientist,
Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom
Tel. +44(0)1392884604 Fax:+44 (0) 870 9005050
E-mail: john.f.mitchellatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk



-----Original Message-----
From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: 26 March 2007 10:43
To: Mitchell, John FB (Chief Scientist)
Cc: Jenkins, Geoff
Subject: Awful Ch 4 programme


>
> John,

A couple of things about the web page on Climate Myths.

1. The recent eruptions were in 1982 (El Chichon) and 1991 (Pinatubo).
Effects were mostly in the years you've given (so cooling then),
but they occurred the year before.

2. On Myth 5, you could add that models have run the last millennium
as well as the last hundred years. Related to this, is the solar
activity
in Myth 4 the new Judith Lean series?

I could add many more myths, relating to frost fairs, the MWP,
urbanization
etc , if you should ever choose to add to this page. Philip Stott in
that same
program alluded to Frost Fairs and the MWP. There is no need for the
UK
to consider frost fairs, when we have the Manley CET record,
Luterbacher's
Swiss reconstructions and the Dutch seasonal reconstructions back to
1250.

By the way, the skeptics may one day realise that the only bias in
the surface temperature data that really matters is the bucket/intake
one.

The page is linked off the CRU site.

Cheers
Phil



Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
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