Sunday, June 3, 2012

4896.txt

date: Mon Oct 20 15:21:03 2008
from: Tim Osborn <t.osbornatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: MAGICC sea level rise for QUEST-GSI
to: "Nigel Arnell" <n.w.arnellatXYZxyzding.ac.uk>

Hi Nigel,
At 15:06 20/10/2008, you wrote:

Tim,

A while ago you sent me the MAGICC_AR4 spreadsheets containing global mean temperature
for each of the AR4 GCMs, for a given emissions scenario (e.g.
GMT_MAGICC_AR4-defDQ2x_A1B-AIM_CC-default.xls).

Just to be certain that you're clear on this (I expect you are), the spreadsheet gives the
MAGICC attempt at emulating the AR4 GCMs for global mean temperature, not the actual GCM
global mean temperatures (which aren't available for many GCM/scenario combinations, hence
using MAGICC).

Do you have the same for sea level rise? Robert Nicholls needs these to rescale the sea
level patterns he is obtaining from Jason Lowe.

Results for the ocean thermal expansion part of sea level rise from MAGICC are attached.
Two files:
(1) multi-model-mean results for all SRES scenarios.
(2) individual model results for A1B scenario.
I can probably find the individual model results for A2, B1, and B2 too if necessary.
Note, however, that I don't think they explicitly tuned to match sea level rise, therefore
the fits between MAGICC and the actual GCM results may be poor. I'll ask Sarah about this
and see if she has any recommendations. But despite some poorer matches, if this is all we
have, then this is what we may have to use!
Also, there is the ice-melt component of SLR to consider. Presumably the patterns from
Jason Lowe represent only the thermal expansion / ocean circulation component, therefore
the scaling should be done according to the expansion component of SLR that I've just
attached. However, some additional, presumably globally uniform, SLR from ice melt should
be added on top? Should I also ask Sarah if MAGICC simulates this, or have you already
decided what to do about that?
Best wishes
Tim

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