Saturday, June 9, 2012

5013.txt

cc: simon.tett@metoffice.com, jonathan.gregory@metoffice.com, jason.lowe@metoffice.com, k.briffaatXYZxyz.ac.uk
date: Tue, 22 Apr 2003 16:30:30 +0100 (BST)
from: Simon Tett <simon.tettatXYZxyzoffice.com>
subject: Re: sea level
to: W.R.GehrelsatXYZxyzmouth.ac.uk

Hi Roland,

the largest change in global-mean sea-level in the naturally forced
experiment is about 2 cm over 100 years (from circa 1850 to 1950)
.... I think that this would make it hard to tell from proxy data
if the model is right or not. If reconstruction errors are truely
random then averaging over lots of data might help.... I'll send
you a plot of sea-level changes from the naturally forced experiment.

I would be happy to lead Hadley Centre collaboration with your
work.

Simon

>>>>> "Roland" == Roland Gehrels <W.R.GehrelsatXYZxyzmouth.ac.uk> writes:

Roland> Dear Simon

Roland> Thanks for your message and your interest.

Roland> I have just been reading the SOAP web site. I wasn't familiar with the project but I see that my data from the HOLSMEER project are actually written into the proposal (see below). I have a long-standing working relationship with Orson van de Plassche (partner 8) and we have recently done some work with modellers at the KNMI. I just spoke to him on the phone about SOAP and he's filled me in. As you probably know, Keith Briffa is also involved in HOLSMEER so he is familiar with some of the work on the European coasts.

Roland> Just to give you some idea, the Nova Scotia sea-level record has a precision of +/- 6 cm and a resolution of 56 data points over the past 500 years. The site is exposed to the open Atlantic coast (Labrador Current) so should have some palaeoceanographic relevance. Other records are somewhat less precise, +/- 15 cm at worst. (I assume the signal you're looking for is 20 cm per 100 yrs, not 2 cm?)

Roland> If it is useful for your project I would be quite happy to share palaeo data. If you think it's appropriate I could add your name/group as a collaborator on my next NERC submission.

Roland> Best wishes

Roland> Roland



Roland> Palaeo sea level variations will be estimated by partner 8 for north-western Europe and eastern USA and Canada, with a resolution of 50-200 years. Sea level records, based on foraminiferal analysis of tidal marsh cores, from six existing USA sites, augmented by records from more USA sites, and UK and German sites by early 2003, and further augmented by sites sampled during the current EC-funded HOLSMEER project in Iceland, Ireland, Denmark and Portugal that will become available by 2003-4, will be critically assessed for age control (with special focus on the onset of the current high rate of sea level rise), completeness and geographical representativeness, and combined to yield estimates of palaeo sea level for the two Atlantic regions. Changes over the past 2000-4000 years will be used to identify background trends related to vertical land movement (also simulated by existing isostatic earth models) and thus obtain absolute sea level. Comparison and combination with tide gauge records of 70 or mo



--
Dr Simon Tett Managing Scientist, Data development and applications.
Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Prediction and Research
London Road Bracknell Berkshire RG12 2SY United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)1344 856886 Fax: +44 (0)1344 854898
E-mail: simon.tettatXYZxyzoffice.com http://www.metoffice.com

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