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cc:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, "David R Trerotola" <>, AddressListTooLong-Suppressed:;
date: Tue, 29 Oct 2002 21:11:27 -0500
from: "Tom Jacob" <>
subject: COP 8 Report
to: "Norman Bell" <>, "John C Deruyter" <>, "John R Foote" <>, "Ignac R Matocha" <>, "Peter P Schubert" <>, "Jose Carlos Siqueira" <>, "Michael Mocella" <>, "Nancie S Johnson" <>, "John A Dege" <>, "Mack McFarland" <>, "Patricia Shaw" <>, "Richard C Hill" <>, "John V Anderson" <>, "Kimberly A Iverson" <>, "Diane R Currie" <>, "Robert H Routliffe" <>, "Ricardo Antonio Ramirez" <>, "Mark M Montgomery" <MONTE2MM.DUPONT@CDCLN05.LVS.DUPONT.COM>, "Antonio Cantu" <>, "Tim Kemp" <>, "Yolande Peeters" <>, "Jennifer Hooper" <>, "Mark S Baunchalk" <>, "Michael S Parr" <>, "Katia Leal" <>, "Leslie A Cormier" <>, "Craig M Heinrich" <HEINR2CM.DUPONT@CDCLN05.LVS.DUPONT.COM>, "Peter Anstey" <>, "George F MacCormack" <>, "John B Carberry" <>, "Edwin L Mongan" <>, "A D Tony Jordan" <JORDA2T@CDCLN05.LVS.DUPONT.COM>, "Bernard J Reilly" <>, "William C Haaf" <>, "Eric A van_Wely" <>, "Patricia McGee" <>


---------------------- Forwarded by Tom Jacob/AE/DuPont on 10/29/2002 21:09

Tom Cortina <> on 10/29/2002 11:20:39

Please respond to Tom Cortina <>

To: ICCP Total:;
Subject: COP 8 Report

October 29, 2002



FROM: Kevin Fay


Attached and below is a status report from COP 8 by Kevin Fay.

Mid-day, Tuesday, October 29, 2002

Preliminary meetings of the UNFCCC subsidiary bodies are expected to
wrap-up today in advance of the COP 8 ministerial meeting which begins
tomorrow. The meetings and discussions here have a strange resemblance to
the recent US energy legislation conference?many flourishes of activity on
highly detailed issues with large associated uncertainties over whether
there will be a final product.

The major question here is when Russia will ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
While Russian officials continue to indicate that they intend to ratify,
they also indicate that they continue to have significant questions. These
questions range from science to policy. It currently appears that Russian
ratification should not be expected before the fall of 2003.

The Russians are hosting an international workshop or conference on the
"questions and issues" relating to the Kyoto Protocol. The meeting will be
held in September 2003 in Moscow.

In a conversation with Yuri Israel, The Russian co-chair of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (ICCP), he stated that it was
highly unlikely that ratification would occur until after the Moscow
meeting. Yuri Israel is a controversial figure, but he does have the ear
of some politicians at home. He has been widely quoted here in the press
over the last few days questioning the scientific basis of the Kyoto
Protocol. These articles report Russian running "hot and cold" on the
issue. Some have misunderstood his comments. He is not challenging climate
change science, according to him he is merely pointing out that the
protocol is a political agreement, and a first step, not a scientific

It appears that the Russians are still trying to ascertain which action has
a higher value, i.e., ratifying or not ratifying. Some additional
clarifications from Russia on its process were expected in November. The
recent hostage situation may delay that possibility.

The attitude among other countries concerning the U.S. role appears to be
one of acceptance of the U.S. position, which is not to be interpreted as
approval. Press coverage of U.S. "non-engagement" is predictably negative.

It now appears that Canada is likely to ratify the Protocol, even though
their clean energy proposal has not fared well to date (it was even opposed
by the U.S.) and is expected to fail. Entry into effect is possible only
if Russia (or the U.S.) were to ratify. If Russian ratification delays
until fall of 2003 (or later) then the treaty cannot enter into force until
2004. This would mean that the next Conference of Parties meeting (COP 9),
which is rumored to be held in Italy in December 2004, would not be the
first Meeting of the Parties (MOP) of the Kyoto Protocol.

The uncertain status of ratification is affecting discussions on other
issues. If difficulties arise on an issue, the temptation is to push the
issue forward to the next subsidiary body meetings or the next COP.

The SBSTA agenda includes several issues such as Canada's clean energy
proposal, "good practices" under policies and measures, sinks, HFCs/PFCs,
and Article 2.3 (minimizing adverse effects of policies and measures on
developing countries). As of this morning, the only item on which a
conclusion had been reached was HFCs/PFCs. The HFC decision to be
recommended to the COP is generally considered acceptable by the concerned

The SBI was to consider issues concerning effective participation, both of
non-parties and NGOs, and organizational details of the first Meeting of
the Parties (MOP). The U.S. gave a strong intervention on the issue of
effective participation, which immediately drew the wrath of SBI chair
Raoul Estrada. The issue is not yet considered concluded.

The contact groups on all these issues are still meeting. Both subsidiary
bodies are scheduled to meet beginning at 3 p.m. this afternoon. It is
highly possible that this will be delayed until later in the evening.

When the COP begins tomorrow, the Ministers are expected to participate in
three roundtable discussions over two days. The roundtable topics are
"Taking Stock," "Climate Change and Sustainable Development," and "Wrap
Up." In addition, they will have their ministerial statements and will
then have to consider the recommendations flowing from the SBSTA and SBI

The first draft of a "Delhi Declaration" has been circulated which makes no
mention of the Kyoto Protocol but emphasizes the need for developed and
developing countries to meet their commitments under the Framework
Convention and the Berlin Mandate. It also raises the issue of the need
for adaptation steps and the need for additional assistance for developing
countries. Most observations of the first draft of the declaration have
characterized it as unremarkable (current draft is attached). It does
dance at the edge of several very controversial issues.

Although industry attendance is considered to be light, it probably is
appropriate with the anticipated level of activity and the likely decisions
to come out of the meeting. Environment NGO participation also appears to
be relatively light. The U.S. delegation is again heavily represented.
The only congressional observers are Bryan Hannegan, Republican staff of
Senate Energy Committee, and Floyd DesChamps staff to Senator John McCain

A final report will be provided at the conclusion of the meeting. COP 8
is scheduled to conclude on Friday, November 1.

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