Sunday, June 10, 2012

5060.txt

cc: Kevin Trenberth <trenbertatXYZxyzr.edu>, Stephen H Schneider <shsatXYZxyznford.edu>, Myles Allen <allenatXYZxyz.ox.ac.uk>, peter stott <peter.stottatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, "Philip D. Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Benjamin Santer <santer1atXYZxyzl.gov>, Thomas R Karl <Thomas.R.KarlatXYZxyza.gov>, Gavin Schmidt <gschmidtatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, James Hansen <jhansenatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, Michael Oppenheimer <omichaelatXYZxyznceton.EDU>
date: Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:06:45 -0400
from: Michael Mann <mannatXYZxyzeo.psu.edu>
subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
to: Tom Wigley <wigleyatXYZxyzr.edu>

Hi Tom,

thanks for the comments. well, ok. but this is the full CMIP3 ensemble, so at least the
plot is sampling the range of choices regarding if and how indirect effects are
represented, what the cloud radiative feedback & sensitivity is, etc. across the modeling
community. I'm not saying that these things necessarily cancel out (after all, there is an
interesting and perhaps somewhat disturbing compensation between indirect aerosol forcing
and sensitivity across the CMIP3 models that defies the assumption of independence), but if
showing the full spread from CMIP3 is deceptive, its hard to imagine what sort of
comparison wouldn't be deceptive (your point re MAGICC notwithstanding),

perhaps Gavin has some further comments on this (it is his plot after all),

mike

On Oct 14, 2009, at 5:57 PM, Tom Wigley wrote:

Mike,
The Figure you sent is very deceptive. As an example, historical
runs with PCM look as though they match observations -- but the
match is a fluke. PCM has no indirect aerosol forcing and a low
climate sensitivity -- compensating errors. In my (perhaps too harsh)
view, there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model
results by individual authors and by IPCC. This is why I still use
results from MAGICC to compare with observed temperatures. At least
here I can assess how sensitive matches are to sensitivity and
forcing assumptions/uncertainties.
Tom.
+++++++++++++++++++
Michael Mann wrote:

thanks Tom,

I've taken the liberty of attaching a figure that Gavin put together the other day (its
an update from a similar figure he prepared for an earlier RealClimate post. see:
[1]http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/05/moncktons-deliberate-manipulati
on/). It is indeed worth a thousand words, and drives home Tom's point below. We're
planning on doing a post on this shortly, but would be nice to see the Sep. HadCRU
numbers first,

mike

On Oct 14, 2009, at 3:01 AM, Tom Wigley wrote:

Dear all,

At the risk of overload, here are some notes of mine on the recent

lack of warming. I look at this in two ways. The first is to look at

the difference between the observed and expected anthropogenic trend relative to the pdf
for unforced variability. The second is to remove ENSO, volcanoes and TSI variations
from the observed data.

Both methods show that what we are seeing is not unusual. The second

method leaves a significant warming over the past decade.

These sums complement Kevin's energy work.

Kevin says ... "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment
and it is a travesty that we can't". I do not

agree with this.

Tom.

+++++++++++++++++++++++

Kevin Trenberth wrote:

Hi all

Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here
in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on
record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal
is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about
18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather
(see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last
night in below freezing weather).

Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's
global energy. /Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability/, *1*, 19-27,
doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [PDF]
<[2]http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/EnergyDiagnostics09final.pdf>
(A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.)

The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a
travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on
2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our
observing system is inadequate.

That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC are tracking PDO on
a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is
the change in ENSO not real PDO. It surely isn't decadal. The PDO is already reversing
with the switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for first time
since Sept 2007. see
[3]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitorin
g_current.ppt

Kevin

Michael Mann wrote:

extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC. its particularly odd,
since climate is usually Richard Black's beat at BBC (and he does a great job). from
what I can tell, this guy was formerly a weather person at the Met Office.

We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it might be appropriate for
the Met Office to have a say about this, I might ask Richard Black what's up here?

mike

On Oct 12, 2009, at 2:32 AM, Stephen H Schneider wrote:

Hi all. Any of you want to explain decadal natural variability and signal to noise and
sampling errors to this new "IPCC Lead Author" from the BBC? As we enter an El Nino
year and as soon, as the sunspots get over their temporary--presumed--vacation worth a
few tenths of a Watt per meter squared reduced forcing, there will likely be another
dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000. I heard someone--Mike Schlesinger maybe??--was
willing to bet alot of money on it happening in next 5 years?? Meanwhile the past 10
years of global mean temperature trend stasis still saw what, 9 of the warmest in
reconstructed 1000 year record and Greenland and the sea ice of the North in big
retreat?? Some of you observational folks probably do need to straighten this out as my
student suggests below. Such "fun", Cheers, Steve

Stephen H. Schneider

Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies,

Professor, Department of Biology and

Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment

Mailing address:

Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205

473 Via Ortega

Ph: 650 725 9978

F: 650 725 4387

Websites: climatechange.net

patientfromhell.org

----- Forwarded Message -----

From: "Narasimha D. Rao" <ndrao@stanford.edu <[4]mailto:ndrao@stanford.edu>>

To: "Stephen H Schneider" <shs@stanford.edu <[5]mailto:shs@stanford.edu>>

Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2009 10:25:53 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific

Subject: BBC U-turn on climate

Steve,

You may be aware of this already. Paul Hudson, BBCs reporter on climate change, on
Friday wrote that theres been no warming since 1998, and that pacific oscillations will
force cooling for the next 20-30 years. It is not outrageously biased in presentation as
are other skeptics views.

[6]http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm

[7]http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100013173/the-bbcs-amazing-u-turn-on
-climate-change/

BBC has significant influence on public opinion outside the US.

Do you think this merits an op-ed response in the BBC from a scientist?

Narasimha

-------------------------------

PhD Candidate,

Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER)

Stanford University

Tel: 415-812-7560

--

Michael E. Mann

Professor

Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075

503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663

The Pennsylvania State University email: mannatXYZxyz.edu <[8]mailto:mann@psu.edu>

University Park, PA 16802-5013

website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
<[9]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html>

"Dire Predictions" book site:
[10]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html

--

****************

Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbertatXYZxyzr.edu
<[11]mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu>

Climate Analysis Section, www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
<[12]http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html>

NCAR

P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318

Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax)

Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305

<Wigley-RecentTemps.doc>

--

Michael E. Mann

Professor

Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)

Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075

503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663

The Pennsylvania State University email: mannatXYZxyz.edu <[13]mailto:mann@psu.edu>

University Park, PA 16802-5013

website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
<[14]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm>

"Dire Predictions" book site:
[15]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html

--
Michael E. Mann
Professor
Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC)
Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075
503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663
The Pennsylvania State University email: [16]mann@psu.edu
University Park, PA 16802-5013
website: [17]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html
"Dire Predictions" book site:
[18]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html

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