date: Mon, 14 Jul 2008 07:18:33 +0100
from: "Conway Declan Dr \(DEV\)" <D.ConwayatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: RE: Fwd: RE: China and investment
to: <S.DorlingatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Jones Philip Prof \(ENV\)" <P.JonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
hi Steve - see responses below - regards, Declan.
From: S.DorlingatXYZxyz.ac.uk [mailto:S.Dorling@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: Thu 10-07-2008 15:37
To: Jones Philip Prof (ENV); Conway Declan Dr (DEV)
Cc: Dorling Stephen Dr (ENV)
Subject: Re: Fwd: RE: China and investment
thanks for sight of the draft report. Good to know that you have been
involved in looking at PRECIS output for China. 2 of my PhD students have
been running PRECIS experiments on the UEA cluster over the last couple of
years, one for a NW Europe domain, the other for SE Asia with a special
focus on Thailand. These projects have used boundary conditions from
different global models and used different emission scenarios.
I had no idea you were doing this - I've been quite involved with Richard Jones and groups
runnning PRECIS in China and India
Question I have is who has run the experiments you are analysing? Have
these been done locally in China, following PRECIS training, or in the UK
by the UKMO PRECIS Group or by Oxford through NERC KT funding?
The chinese academy of agricultural sciences - main researcher Xu Yinlong - he has had lots
of support from Hadley (mainly Richard) - through Defra funded projects on CC in China.
Paper is attached on their work.
They are now running PRECIS with ECHAM4 boundary conditions, and want to do some
stabilisation and perturbed parameter experiements next.
Next question is how to potentially build on what we've done through this
opportunity with Lake House investment. The initial thoughts I've had are:
1. To consider a wider number of scenarios (different global boundary
conditions and/or model physics, bearing in mind sensitivity to
Yes - interesting to do - certainly important to get scenarios with the ECHAM 4 boundary
conditions not sure how easy it is to do other GCM boundary conditions (seems like a very
slow process going through Hadley group, lots of bugs and delays) - or try another RCM?? I
know the Climate Centre here in Beijing have run other models for China....
2. To look at a subset of global models (ie those we think are more
reliable, not just the IPCC average - we discussed this issue with Lake
House and they were quite interested)
Very important to do - see our final report (I'll attached in next email as it's big) we've
done a quite detailed compariions of AR4 model results for China - PRECIS is pretty wet
compared to the model average. Not sure how much could be done on this, although our work
is farily superficial and could be done in more detail to add value
3. Historical crop yields based on reanalysis (or PRECIS with reanalysis
Good potential here - the group has CERES maize rice and wheat set up to run on high
resolution grids - and can do this type of analysis easily. My feeling is that much less
work has been done on extremes and their agricultural impacts (and climate drivers) - would
be interesting to do more crop modelling of particularly extreme years/events and look at
impacts (and compare with observed yields) and also to analyse the scenarios in more detail
on things like length of groing season/dry spells etc. Note that the average impacts on
crops, even out to 2050s and beyond are not that large relative to other socio-economic
drivers - so it's important to look at extremes.
I don't know what Lake House are interested in so it's difficult to comment - a key outcome
of our work is to show the critical importance of water availability for agri. (irrigation)
- less work has been done on this and htere is good potential to improve river flow
modelling with scenarios.....
4. Would like to share our SE Asia PRECIS output with you.
Okay - we should discuss when I'm back in August
I wasn't sure why you include the "no-fertilization" results?
Because of uncertainty about the actual CO2 effects - so we have a comparison
Is there more detail regarding the Reading "Climate Change and China"
you can find detail here - I'll be there on 29th and 30th
Our final report to follow (Phil I won't send it to you unless you ask for it
> This reply came through from Declan.
>>Subject: RE: China and investment
>>Date: Mon, 7 Jul 2008 03:12:42 +0100
>>Thread-Topic: China and investment
>>From: "Conway Declan Dr \(DEV\)" <D.ConwayatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>>To: "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
>>Hi Phil - thanks for this - yes very interested to discuss. I'm back
>>on 28th July - then going to Reading for two day meeting on CC in
>>China (organised by Julia Slingo). I'll be around UEA form early
>>August onwards. We're just finishing off lots of final reports form
>>the project here - lots of work on scenarios and impacts on crop
>>yields for all China. I am attaching the exec summary of our main
>>national report - do share with Steve if you think relevant - all
>>the best - Declan.
>>From: Phil Jones [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org]
>>Sent: Fri 04-07-2008 17:32
>>To: Conway Declan Dr (DEV)
>>Subject: China and investment
>> Steve Dorling and I have just had a couple of hours with
>> an investment
>> group from HK, called Lake House Group. When are you back in the UK?
>> We've been asked to submit a proposal to them - related to agriculture
>> and forestry and the effects of climate change. Might be worth
>> discussing it with you.
>>Prof. Phil Jones
>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>University of East Anglia
>>Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
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