cc: Adam MARKHAM <ADAM.MARKHAMatXYZxyzUS.ORG>
date: Thu, 30 Sep 1999 11:42:47 -0400
from: Andrew Kerr <rrekatXYZxyzpuserve.com>
subject: WWF climate: questions on release
to: Mike HULME <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Nicola SHEARD <n.sheardatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
More questions. I've bounced the following off Adam and he is agreeable.
Could I have some answers to the questions, and any more questions you can
And could I get your biography (and that of Nicola if you wish) as well as
something describing CRU and its standing.
Re. releasing the scenarios, I suggest the package consists of the
- PRESS RELEASE
An international version for release on Tuesday 19 October. This could be
used as-is by those NOs for whose country there is no scenario.
Countries for which there is a scenario would drop in relevant national
information at the head of the release. They would pull the info from the
scenario itself or from notes we include in the section "Background
information" - see below.
- BACKGROUND INFORMATION
1. Key findings for [country]
2. Summary of other key findings
2.2 Other countries/regions
- QUESTIONS & ANSWERS (Q&A) (see below)
- THE SCENARIO, or SCENARIOS
- BIOGRAPHY OF AUTHORS AND CLIMATIC RESEARCH UNIT (CRU)
[We need to avoid this project being dismissed as just another climate
modelling exercise. So we need to think about what it is or has that sets
it aside from other similar efforts. And bolster areas of potential
weakness in a Q&A section. Note: some of the following questions and
answers could be merged].
About the model:
1. How accurate are the projections likely to be?
2. How has the model been tested for accuracy? What was the result?
3. How far can the model go in projecting the regional or local
impacts of climate change?
4. Why should policymakers take heed of these results?
5. Who else uses this model?
6. What is the difference between this model and others that some
7. What is the difference between these scenarios and what the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has produced?
8. Which other experts have been involved or consulted in the course
of the project?
9. Who has reviewed the findings? What were their comments?
About the findings and their implications:
1. What do the findings mean overall for the survival of plants and
2. Which of the countries and regions will see their nature hardest
3. Which species head the list of "most at risk" from climate change?
Does it mean extinction for some species? Which ones?
4. What are the implications for society? Which countries and regions
will be worst affected? How?
5. What present the greatest risks? (Sea-level rise, floods, droughts,
hurricanes, spread of infectious diseases?)
6. What are the "worst-case" and "best-case" scenarios concerning the
impacts of climate change?
7. How does the projected warming compare to historical and geological
evidence of past climates on Earth?
8. How effective will the Kyoto Protocol's 5% reduction in emissions
by industrialised countries over the next decade be in avoiding serious
climate change impacts?
Other questions we need to know the answers to (but not for inclusion in
- why did WWF choose these countries for the study? Why not other large
countries such as India?
- how much of the world's land mass do the countries and regions cover in
- how do we describe the model: the most sophisticated, "state-of-the-art"
(what do we really mean?), the most reliable...?
- how do we describe the scenarios: the best, the latest, the most
- how many person-hours of work have been invested in this project?
- what experts do we know or have lined up in other countries who will back
- can journalists download and use graphics from the PDF files? How?
- who should a journalist contact for more information/an interview on the
modelling side of things? (Mike alone? Nicola?)