Monday, June 11, 2012

5112.txt

date: Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:51:20 -0500
from: Chet Ropelewski <Chet.RopelewskiatXYZxyza.gov>
subject: Re: Request for a review
to: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

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Phil,
Thanks for the informal comments and reprint. They will be useful
for the review. I fear this submission is going to be a struggle.

Yes, I'm in the DC area again. My office is in Silver Spring. Give
me a head's up the next time you expect to be in the area. I planning
to go to a reduced work schedule (3-days a week) early next year and
expect to keep a hand in the game for a couple of years.
Best
-Chet

Phil Jones wrote:
>
> Chet,
> Glad to hear you have concerns about the paper! A lot of the issues
> relate to the NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses producing temperature trends
> that are less than in the HadCRUT3/NCDC/GISS surface temperatures
> from the late 1950s. There is a paper by Kalnay and Cai (2003) that
> claims
> these differences result from Land-use/Land-cover effects - which is
> total rubbish. Once the Reanalyses (ERA-40 as well) get better after the
> satellite data start coming in all the differences disappear.
> Attached is a nice paper on all this with ERA-40.
>
> It would be nice to meet up again - are you back in the DC area?
> If you are I should tell you when I'm next in the area. I'm assuming
> you're
> not planning a holiday in the UK at any time!
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
> At 13:22 18/02/2009, you wrote:
>> Phil,
>> Thanks for your suggestions. You confirm some of my concerns about
>> this submission. I hope that we can cross paths again before I
>> really retire.
>> Best
>> -Chet
>>
>> Phil Jones wrote:
>>>
>>> Chet,
>>> I just knew it had to contain Roger Pielke Sr! It also has many
>>> authors the same
>>> from a paper in JGR that David Parker and others sent in a comment
>>> about -
>>> that was accepted a few weeks ago. I can guess it will say the
>>> same sorts of things.
>>>
>>> A lot of the things they are saying have been established
>>> haven't. They are not
>>> as important as this paper will claim!
>>>
>>> So David would be a good reviewer. I'd just get too stroppy with
>>> them, as Roger never
>>> listens to anything said to him.
>>>
>>> David is
>>>
>>> David Parker Met Office Hadley Centre FitzRoy Road EXETER EX1
>>> 3PB UK
>>> E-mail: david.parkeratXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk
>>> Tel: +44-1392-886649 Fax: +44-1392-885681 http:www.metoffice.gov.uk
>>>
>>> Don't tell David I suggested him!
>>>
>>> Tom Peterson would be another good reviewer, but I can see there is
>>> at least
>>> one person from NCDC on the list. Another would be Kevin Trenberth,
>>> but again
>>> there is someone from NCAR in the author list.
>>>
>>>
>>> Cheers
>>> Phil
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> At 17:25 17/02/2009, you wrote:
>>>> Phil,
>>>> Per your request. Abstract below. Auhor list attached. Thanks
>>>> for your help.
>>>> -Chet
>>>>
>>>> ABSTRACT
>>>> 271 Human activities have modified the environment for thousands of
>>>> years.
>>>> 272 Significant population increase, migration, and accelerated
>>>> socio-economic activities
>>>> 273 have intensified these environmental changes over the last
>>>> several centuries. The impacts
>>>> 274 of these changes have been found in local, regional, and global
>>>> trends in modern
>>>> 275 atmospheric temperature records and other relevant climatic
>>>> indicators.
>>>> 276 One of the human influences on atmospheric temperature trends
>>>> is extensive
>>>> 277 land use land cover change (LULCC) and its climate forcing.
>>>> Studies using both
>>>> 278 modeled and observed data have documented these impacts (e.g.,
>>>> Chase et al. 2000;
>>>> 279 Kalnay and Cai 2003; Feddema et al. 2005; Christy et al. 2006;
>>>> Mahmood et al. 2006b;
>>>> 280 Ezber et al. 2007; Nunez et al. 2008). Thus, it is essential
>>>> that we detect LULCCs
>>>> 281 accurately at appropriate scales and in a timely manner to
>>>> better understand the impacts
>>>> 282 on climate and provide improved prediction of future climate.
>>>> 283 The National Research Council (2005) has recommended the
>>>> broadening of the
>>>> 284 climate change issue to include LULCC processes as an important
>>>> climate forcing. The
>>>> 285 findings of this report state:
>>>> 286 "Regional variations in radiative forcing may have important
>>>> regional and
>>>> 287 global climatic implications that are not resolved by the
>>>> concept of global mean radiative
>>>> 288 forcing. Tropospheric aerosols and landscape changes have
>>>> particularly heterogeneous
>>>> 289 forcings. To date, there have been only limited studies of
>>>> regional radiative forcing and
>>>> 290 response. Indeed, it is not clear how best to diagnose a
>>>> regional forcing and response in
>>>> 291 the observational record; regional forcings can lead to global
>>>> climate responses, while
>>>> 292 global forcings can be associated with regional climate
>>>> responses. Regional diabatic
>>>> 293 heating can also cause atmospheric teleconnections that
>>>> influence regional climate
>>>> 294 thousands of kilometers away from the point of forcing.
>>>> Improving societally relevant
>>>> 295 projections of regional climate impacts will require a better
>>>> understanding of the
>>>> 296 magnitudes of regional forcings and the associated climate
>>>> responses."
>>>> 297 In short, the above discussion clearly identified the
>>>> importance of LULCC in the climate
>>>> 298 system.
>>>> 299 It has also been established in the literature that biases,
>>>> inaccuracies, and
>>>> 300 imprecision have been introduced to the climate monitoring
>>>> systems because of
>>>> 301 meteorological station moves, instrument changes, improper
>>>> exposure of instruments, and
>>>> 302 changes in observation practices (Davey and Pielke 2005; Pielke
>>>> et al. 2007a, b;
>>>> 303 Mahmood et al. 2006a). Hence, we also need strategies that will
>>>> help us to detect and
>>>> 304 overcome these biases and thus lead to improved understanding
>>>> of the role of land use
>>>> 305 forcing within the climate system.
>>>> 306 This paper has two main objectives. First, it highlights LULCC
>>>> and its role
>>>> 307 within the climate system. Examples include both long-term
>>>> systematic change (e.g.,
>>>> 308 agricultural land use change, deforestation) and short-term
>>>> abrupt change (e.g., rapid
>>>> 309 urbanization). Second, the paper proposes a series of
>>>> recommendations related to
>>>> 310 detecting LULCC from observed climatic records, as well as
>>>> modeling to improve our
>>>> 311 understanding of LULCC and its impacts on climate. The latter
>>>> also includes discussion
>>>> 312 on why and how LULCC needs to be considered as a climate
>>>> forcing and why it must be
>>>> 313 included as a first-order effect in all climate assessments.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Phil Jones wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Chet,
>>>>> Bit busy - as always - for the next few weeks. Can you send the
>>>>> abstract and the author list, to help me make some suggestions?
>>>>>
>>>>> Cheers
>>>>> Phil
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> At 16:24 17/02/2009, you wrote:
>>>>>> Hi Phil,
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Among the jobs that I can't seem to retire from is Climate
>>>>>> Variability/Change Editor of the Bulletin of the American
>>>>>> Meteorological Society (BAMS). I'm asking for your help as a
>>>>>> reviewer. The submission is "Impacts of Land Use Land Cover
>>>>>> Change on Climate and Future Research Priorities" by R. Mahmood
>>>>>> and 37 co-authors. Given the number of co-authors and their
>>>>>> affiliations it is a challenge to find un-conflicted reviewers
>>>>>> who know the subject.
>>>>>> The paper is actually a conference summary, fairly broad ranging,
>>>>>> running 25 double-space pages. I would need comments in about 4
>>>>>> to 5 weeks.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> If you are not able to serve as a reviewer I would appreciate
>>>>>> suggestions for alternatives, preferably outside the U.S. given
>>>>>> the extensive list of authors, almost all of them from the U.S.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I hope that all is well with you. I've "retired" after about
>>>>>> 10 years at the IRI. I accepted a visiting scientist position
>>>>>> at NOAA's Climate Program Office and doing more program
>>>>>> management than I'd bargained for. The plan is to go to a
>>>>>> reduced schedule about a year from now and perhaps return to more
>>>>>> scientific endeavors.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Best
>>>>>>
>>>>>> -Chet Ropelewski
>>>>>
>>>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>>>> University of East Anglia
>>>>> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>>>> NR4 7TJ
>>>>> UK
>>>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>> Prof. Phil Jones
>>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>>> University of East Anglia
>>> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>>> NR4 7TJ
>>> UK
>>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>>>
>>
>> Prof. Phil Jones
>> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
>> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
>> University of East Anglia
>> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
>> NR4 7TJ
>> UK
>> ----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
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