Thursday, June 14, 2012

5134.txt

date: Wed Dec 10 15:57:43 2008
from: Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: RE: WG comments - quick response
to: C G Kilsby <c.g.kilsbyatXYZxyzcastle.ac.uk>

Chris,
How much do you think we're going to do?
Even restricting this to the 10 WG sites, the permutations are going to beat us.
With all the non-rainfall variables we can't throw all the days together, else the
seasonal cycle will obscure anything you want to see.
To be able to see if 3>2>1 we'll need to restrict to individual months for temperature.
Let's say we try this with a couple of temperature variables - mean monthly T
and highest Tx.
I expect 2 to be > 1 and 3>>2, but from looking at the model variants so far climate model
uncertainty dwarfs WG uncertainty. Problem is much of this is down to wacky data.
I'm beginning to think that the modelling has lost the real-world agreement between
variables -
which is what the WG assumes to still be the case!
Colin has sent revised code to Vaz - it now runs through without hanging.
This was only achievable by stopping the checks for silly numbers!
Once you have some of the final cfs send down here - we need to look at them with
those plots Colin did last week.
Cheers
Phil
At 16:29 09/12/2008, you wrote:

We already have sufficient info to start this:

1. 6190 obs = 30 years daily data (rainfall, temp, etc. and various indices of these) -
can estimate mean + pdf or 10,50,90 %ile values by bootstrap etc. = natural variability
2. 6190 100 ensemble - can estimate WG "uncertainty" or pdfs for T, rainfall (various
stats) = "WG uncertainty"
3. Future projections 1000 ensemble - pdfs as in 2 = "WG uncertainty" + ClimateModel
uncertainty

Expect 3>>2 and 2>~1

C
_______________________________________________________________________________

From: Phil Jones [[1]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: 09 December 2008 16:06
To: C G Kilsby
Subject: RE: WG comments - quick response
Chris,
Can you elaborate on the pdf idea? Not clear what you mean.
Cheers
Phil
At 15:29 09/12/2008, you wrote:

Yes - agree with all you say here and before.

Alberto is after a full uncertainty analysis: a nice idea, but not realistic on this
timescale, and we're not paid to do it!

Something towards it would be useful/achievable though and will discuss here.

Could do things like compare future pdfs of variables with pdf from control?
(And same for extremes)

Chris


_______________________________________________________________________________

From: Phil Jones [ [2]mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
Sent: 09 December 2008 10:42
To: C G Kilsby
Cc: c.harphamatXYZxyz.ac.uk
Subject: WG comments - quick response
Chris,
I presume we're on the same wavelength over these two sets of comments -
i.e. there isn't much to respond to. The extra detail could be done, but it
isn't
going to be that helpful to 99.9% of potential users. It is too detailed for
the main report - and probably too much for the Annex.
I can have a go at responding this weekend - if we get Tim's by then,
if you want?
The most important thing to add is Section 4 - with some extremes in the
future,
but we need the final set of cfs for this.
Cheers
Phil
Chris,
These two sets of comments seem fine - let's hope Tim Carter's are in a
similar
vein. So good choices so far!
I'm not sure that these are quite the reviews DEFRA were expecting, but
they
are positive for us.
Elaine Barrow
Not much to respond to. Elaine seems confused in para 3 about data
preparation
and the users checking their data. She's misunderstood that the WG is
prefitted,
by us!
Ringway and LHR weren't the best sites. We do have the other 8.
The validity of the IVRs in the future has been tested - in our section
3.
Also she's not seen the WG User's Guide.
Alberto Montanari
Seems to want a lot more detail that we could do, but I'm sure that most
people
wouldn't even look at. We could provide goodness-of-fit diagrams, R*R of all
the fits etc,
but is this going to help the user understand uncertainty - certainly not if
the cfs's
have the range they currently do!
Again there seems to be a few things that haven't been understood, which is
useful.
If these two can't understand what we've done.
Happier with Dave Sexton's reply and that they will be clipping the values
in
the model variants. Colin is still checking the code Ag is using. There seem
one or two small issues.
Cheers
Phil

At 11:35 04/12/2008, Bryden, Clare wrote:

Phil, Chris
Please find two sets of review comments on the Weather Generator attached.
Comments are still outstanding from Tim Carter, expected 11th December.
<<Comments_on_Weather_Generator_Alberto_Montanari.pdf>>
<<Comments_on_Weather_Generator_Elaine_Barrow.pdf>>
Best regards
Clare
---
Clare Bryden Climate Business Manager
Tel: 01392 884834 Mobile: 07717 156452
Please note that I work four days a week, Monday-Thursday.
� Crown Copyright 2008. Produced by the Met Office.
_____________________________________________ From: Bryden, Clare Sent: 27
November 2008 09:30 To: 'myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk';
'francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca'; 'C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk';
'ctebaldi@climatecentral.org'; 'Alberto Montanari';
'elaine.barrow@sasktel.net'; 'tim.carter@ymparisto.fi';
'n.c.wells@soc.soton.ac.uk'; 'Jaak.Monbaliu@bwk.kuleuven.be';
'corinna.schrum@gfi.uib.no' Cc: 'b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk';
'brian.hoskins@imperial.ac.uk'; 'Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)';
'roger.street@ukcip.org.uk'; 'Warrilow, David (CEOSA)'; 'P.Jones@uea.ac.uk';
'c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk'; Jenkins, Geoff; Pope, Vicky; Mitchell, John FB
(Director of Climate Science); Gordon, Chris; Murphy, James Subject: RE:
Review of science in UKCIP08 product
Dear All
This is a reminder that tomorrow is the deadline for review comments. Thank
you to those who have already been in touch. The review is free format. We
have no expectations or limitations regarding number of pages. Please send
your review via email to John Mitchell, cc'ed to this email, and I'd be
grateful if you could copy them to me. Please note that your comments will be
shared with the other reviewers, by publishing them on the review website. We
won't edit them in any way, other than by converting to pdf. Best regards
Clare --- Clare Bryden Climate Business Manager Tel: 01392 884834 Mobile:
07717 156452 Please note that I work four days a week, Monday-Thursday. �
Crown Copyright 2008. Produced by the Met Office.
_____________________________________________ From: Bryden, Clare Sent: 20
October 2008 16:35 To: 'myles.allen@physics.ox.ac.uk';
'francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca'; 'C.Goodess@uea.ac.uk';
'ctebaldi@climatecentral.org' Cc: 'b.j.hoskins@reading.ac.uk';
'brian.hoskins@imperial.ac.uk'; 'Humphrey, Kathryn (CEOSA)';
'roger.street@ukcip.org.uk'; 'Warrilow, David (CEOSA)'; 'P.Jones@uea.ac.uk';
'c.g.kilsby@ncl.ac.uk'; Jenkins, Geoff; Pope, Vicky; Mitchell, John FB
(Director of Climate Science); Gordon, Chris; Murphy, James Subject:
Review of science in UKCIP08 product
Dear All
We understand from Defra that you have kindly agreed to review aspects of the
UK 21st Century Climate Change Scenarios. I will be project managing the
review on behalf of Defra. I attach a short note on the Terms of Reference for
the Review. As mentioned in the original letter of invitation from Bob Watson,
we would be grateful if you would review the section on probabilistic
projections, and in particular to assess whether the methodology employed is
appropriate for its purpose of delivering state-of-the-art estimates of the
risk of different outcomes for UK climate, consistent with current
understanding of key drivers of climate change, available climate model
results and constraints offered by observations of historical climate. The
review should not comment on such aspects as presentation to users or the
contents of the reports. The review documents are available on a
password-protected website. Please let me know if you cannot gain access for
any reason. URL -
[3]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/review3/ Login - icp0712
Password - Bar0meter
Best regards Clare
<< File: ReviewUKCIP08_TOR_v2.pdf >> --- Clare Bryden Climate Account
Manager Met Office FitzRoy Road Exeter EX1 3PB United Kingdom Tel: +44
(0)1392 885196 Fax: +44 (0)1392 885681 Mobile: 07717 156452 E-mail:
clare.brydenatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk [4]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ Please note
that I work four days a week, Monday-Thursday.
� Crown Copyright 2008. Produced by the Met Office. New Met Office Climate
Change Seminars - plan today to safeguard your future success
[5]http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/training/climatechange
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK

----------------------------------------------------------------------------


Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------

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