Thursday, June 14, 2012

5172.txt

cc: Keith Alverson <keith.alversonatXYZxyzes.unibe.ch>, Ayako Abe-Ouchi <abeouchi@ccrs.u-tokyo.ac.jp>
date: Mon, 27 Jan 2003 10:21:46 -0500
from: Mike MacCracken <mmaccracatXYZxyzcast.net>
subject: IUGG Symposium MC10 Invitation
to: robert.mendelsohn@yale.edu, rprinn@mit.edu, socci.tony@epa.gov, sumi@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp, tcrowley@moorcock.acpub.duke.edu, trenbert@ncar.ucar.edu, wcollins@ucar.edu, wmw@ncar.ucar.edu, Akio Kitoh <kitohatXYZxyz-jma.go.jp>, Alan Robock <robockatXYZxyzsci.rutgers.edu>, Albert Arking <arking@aa.gsfc.nasa.gov>, Andr� Berger <bergeratXYZxyzr.ucl.ac.be>, Andrei Sokolov <sokolovatXYZxyz.edu>, Atul Jain <jainatXYZxyztma.atmos.uiuc.edu>, axel timmermann <atimmermann@ifm.uni-kiel.de>, Ben Santer <santer1atXYZxyzl.gov>, Bill Randel <randel@vortex.shm.monash.edu.au>, Bryant McAvaney <Bryant.McAvaney@lmd.jussieu.fr>, Byron Boville <boville@ucar.edu>, CDIAC <cdiac@ornl.gov>, Chris Bretherton <breth@whirlwind.atmos.washington.edu>, Curtis Covey <covey1atXYZxyzl.gov>, Dave Pollard <pollardatXYZxyzc.psu.edu>, David Battisti <davidatXYZxyzos.washington.edu>, David Karoly <djkatXYZxyztex.shm.monash.edu.au>, David Randall <randall@redfish.atmos.colostate.edu>, David Rind <cddhratXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, David Viner <d.vineratXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Don Wuebbles <wuebblesatXYZxyzos.uiuc.edu>, Eric Barron <eric@essc.psu.edu>, Eugene Rozanov <e.rozanov@pmodwrc.ch>, gary yohe <gyohe@mail.wesleyan.edu>, George Boer <George.Boer@ec.gc.ca>, Gera Stenchikov <gera@envsci.rutgers.edu>, Granger Morgan <gm5d@andrew.cmu.edu>, Hadi Dowlatabadi <hadi@sdri.ubc.ca>, Herve LETREUT <Herve.Letreut@lmd.jussieu.fr>, James Hack <jhack@cgd.ucar.edu>, James Hansen <jhansenatXYZxyzs.nasa.gov>, James Risbey <ris@alum.mit.edu>, Jean Jouzel <jouzelatXYZxyzlix.saclay.cea.fr>, Jeong-Woo Kim <jwkim@atmos.yonsei.ac.kr>, Jerry Meehl <meehlatXYZxyzker.ucar.edu>, JOEL SCHERAGA <SCHERAGA.JOEL@epa.gov>, Joel Smith <JSmithatXYZxyzatusconsulting.com>, John Katzenberger <johnk@agci.org>, Jonathan Gregory <jonathan.gregoryatXYZxyzoffice.com>, Jonathan Overpeck <jtoatXYZxyzrizona.edu>, Joyce Penner <penneratXYZxyzch.edu>, Juerg Beer <juerg.beer@eawag.ch>, Karol <karol@main.mgo.rssi.ru>, Keith Shine <K.P.Shine@reading.ac.uk>, Ken Caldeira <kencatXYZxyzl.gov>, Ken Sperber <sperber@space.llnl.gov>, Klaus Keller <kkelleratXYZxyzsc.psu.edu>, kodera kunihiko <kodera@mri-jma.go.jp>, Konstantin Vinnikov <kostyaatXYZxyzosrv2.umd.edu>, Larry Gates <gates5atXYZxyzl.gov>, Laurie Geller <LGeller@nas.edu>, Marty Hoffert <mih1atXYZxyzlatlantic.net>, Maurice Blackmon <blackmon@ncar.ucar.edu>, Michael Prather <mpratheratXYZxyz.edu>, Michael Rampino <mrr1@nyu.edu>, Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Mike MacCracken <mmaccracatXYZxyzcast.net>

Dear Colleagues:

This message is to invite you to submit a paper for presentation at the
upcoming IUGG Assembly in Sapporo, where there will be a number of very
interesting sessions on climate and climate change (further information is
available at: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/jamstec-e/iugg/index.html ). Among
these sessions is MC10, which is being convened to consider past examples
and future possiblities for rapid or surprising changes--so nonlinearities,
exceedances of thresholds, irreversibilities, etc. In convening this
symposium, rapid is meant to imply changes that are unusual in their context
(could well include an unusual rate of change in the frequency of some
weather event as a result of a small change in climate), that result from
terms of processes not generally included in GCMs (e.g., rapid glacial
changes) , and large changes that seem to result from small climatic shifts
(e.g., change of the thermohaline circulation). The prospectus for the
symposium is as follows:


MC10 Prospects for and Past Examples of Unexpected Nonlinearities,
Thresholds, and Surprises in the Climate System (ICCl)

Although the projections of future changes in climate tend to be gradual,
experience has provided a number of examples of relatively large climate
changes occurring over relatively short periods of time or that were quite
unexpected. The purpose of this symposium is to explore the potential and
likelihood for unexpected nonlinearities, thresholds, and surprises
occurring as a result of changes in large- to global-scale physical or
environmental systems. Examples could include changes in the global
thermohaline circulation, shifts in the atmospheric circulation, thresholds
that might initiate rapid change of ice sheets or ecosystems, sudden
breaching of coastal Barriers, thresholds that might lead to large changes
in atmospheric chemistry or biogeochemical cycles, unusual changes in
natural forcings, or potential destabilization of methane clathrates. Papers
are invited on both analyses of past events and prospects for future such
events.

Conveners:
Michael C. MacCracken, 6308 Berkshire Drive, Bethesda MD 20814, United
States, tel: +1-301-564-4255, fax: +1-301-564-4255, mmaccracatXYZxyzcast.net
Keith Alverson, PAGES International Project Office, Baerenplatz 2, 3011
Bern, Switzerland, tel: +41-31-312 31 33, fax: +41-31-312 31 68,
keith.alversonatXYZxyzes.unibe.ch
Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo
4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 153- 8904, Japan, tel: +81-3-5453-3955,
fax. +81-3-5453-3964, email: abeouchiatXYZxyzr.u-tokyo.ac.jp


The Symposium is to be held Wednesday and Thursday of the first week of the
IUGG Congress (so July 2-3). Abstracts need to be submitted electronically
by January 30. Please pass along this invitation to colleagues whom you
think might be interested.

Mike MacCracken

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