Friday, June 15, 2012


date: Thu, 28 Apr 2005 10:48:21 -0400
from: Gabi Hegerl <>
subject: Re: submitted manuscript
to: Tim Osborn <>

Hi Tim,

I definitely want to cite this paper! Right now, my paper only has pers
com for the ECHO-G sensitivity being
similar to our EBM sensitivity of 2.5 in the electronic supplement -
that definitely needs a citation (and
science wants written permission for pers coms so I postponed that to
the revised version, but a paper to cite
is much better anyway - I should have asked you but had run out of time
so postponed that.....sorry!!!).
I am still a bit nonplussed that this model has relatively high decadal
(more than our reconstruction unforced residual) and a quite modest
sensitivity - do you know why? (Suki
had this theory based on stochastic climate model theory that level of
variability is related to climate
sensitivity so high sens high var, but it seems to not always work like

paper looks nice - I don't think it affects our main result that the
reconstruction technique works since
for that test the model only needs somewhat decent teleconnections but
not necessarily
everything realistic) - I thought there must be some drift in one of the
runs because the inter runs variability
has a trend which makes no sense unless one of the runs drift.
But I need to consider your results when looking again at my single
fingerprint detection - I don't think it
changes things, but it will change discussion of differences a bit -
although i think that the overestimated
volcanism is probably partly due to forcing differences.


Tim Osborn wrote:

> Dear Gabi and Tom,
> We finished off that paper I told Gabi about (I had Tom's email
> address wrong last time), investigating the behaviour of the ECHO-G
> "Erik" simulation. It was submitted to Climate Dynamics earlier this
> week.
> I thought you might be interested to see it, so I've attached a PDF of
> the submitted version. It seems that we both submitted our papers at
> the same time (Keith told me that you'd submitted yours too)! If it's
> appropriate to cross-reference them, then I guess something suitable
> could be added to each at the revision stage (assuming reviews are
> favourable!).
> Best wishes
> Tim
> PS. Keith and I need to talk about which model runs to include in the
> IPCC diagram. We'll get back to you when we've talked.
> Dr Timothy J Osborn
> Climatic Research Unit
> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia
> Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
> e-mail:
> phone: +44 1603 592089
> fax: +44 1603 507784
> web:
> sunclock:

Gabriele Hegerl
Division of Earth and Ocean Sciences,
Nicholas School for the Environment and Earth Sciences,
Box 90227
Duke University, Durham NC 27708
Ph: 919 684 6167, fax 684 5833


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