Sunday, June 17, 2012

5234.txt

date: Tue, 15 Jun 1999 19:01:19 +0100 (BST)
from: Suraje Dessai <S.DessaiatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
subject: Re: sea level!
to: Mike Hulme <m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk>

After several re-runs I got the same results over and over.
Digging up a bit deeper I found out that Glacier, Greenland and Antartic
melting (for 5.5xCO2) are all lower than for 4.5xCO2; sea expansion being
higher as would be expected.
I think there must be some other parameter (in the sea-level model) we
need to change.
Could you run MAGICC with 5.5xCO2 and one of your SRES scenarios just to
double check?
I think Tom or Sarah probably know the answer to this problem.
Mark has given me an introductoty guide to IDL for my "light" reading
travelling so I hope to be an "expert" next week!
I'll e-mail you when I get back and have some new results.
Suraje

On Tue, 15 Jun 1999, Mike Hulme wrote:

> Something seems wrong here ...... I cannot think why sea-level is less
> sensitive to a 5.5 dT than to a 4.5dT.
>
> Check again.
>
> Mike
>
> At 08:37 15/06/99 +0100, you wrote:
> >Mike,
> >When I was building the matrices I found something strange. All sea-level
> >rise for 5.5 climate sensitivity is smaller than for 4.5 sensitivity (a
> >sample is below):
> >
> >0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5
> >0.4 18.1 24.9 59.2 70.9 102.2 87.1
> >1.1 17 23 56.1 67.3 97.7 82.6
> >1.8 15.9 21 52.8 63.4 92.9 77.9
> >
> >Is this normal? I thought I had made some mistake and re-ran MAGICC but I
> >got the same values. Is there some kind of threshold in-built in MAGICC?
> >If this is abnormal let me know.
> >Suraje
> >
> *****************************************************************************
> Dr Mike Hulme
> Reader in Climatology tel: +44 1603 593162
> Climatic Research Unit fax: +44 1603 507784
> School of Environmental Science email: m.hulmeatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/
> Norwich NR4 7TJ
> *****************************************************************************
> Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999
> is about +1.6 deg C above the 1961-90 average
> ***************************************************
> The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998
> was +0.57 deg C above the 1961-90 average, the warmest year yet recorded
> *****************************************************************************
>

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