Sunday, June 17, 2012

5236.txt

cc: "David Randall" <randallatXYZxyzos.colostate.edu>
date: Wed, 27 Jun 2007 12:14:30 +0100
from: "Wood, Richard" <richard.woodatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>
subject: RE: In case you've not seen this awful paper
to: "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, "Folland, Chris" <chris.follandatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>

Thanks for the warning Phil. From a quick look this one seems to plumb
new depths of garbage, though no doubt they have a few reasonable points
somewhere. Since Chapter 8 is the focus of their bile, I'll give the
paper a read through. I'm sure the authors, as economic/political
forecasters, have a huge track record of successful forecastng so thay
can teach us a thing or two. I particularly love the bit that says that
nonlinear models produce inaccurate forecasts. I'll pass that on to my
weather forecasting colleagues so they can cross a few terms out of
their equations!

Cheers,
Richard

--------------
Richard Wood
Met Office Fellow and Head (Climate, Cryosphere and Oceans)
Met Office Hadley Centre
FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
Phone +44 (0)1392 886641 Fax +44 (0)1392 885681
Email richard.woodatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Phil Jones [mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk]
> Sent: 25 June 2007 09:06
> To: Wood, Richard; Folland, Chris
> Subject: In case you've not seen this awful paper
>
>
> Richard, Chris,
> You may have seen this, so apologies if you have. Kevin's brief
> response is to the point. There might be some media coverage
> this week, as I think ISF is on now.
>
> We didn't respond to their email a few months back as it was
> too vague. I did get one though from Kestin Green.
>
> It would seem that both authors could do with reading some
> relevant literature - at least understand the difference
> between forecasts,
> predictions and projections.
>
> Cheers
> Phil
>
>
> >X-Authentication-Warning: moffatt.cgd.ucar.edu: apache set sender to
> >trenbert@ucar.edu using -f
> >Date: Sun, 24 Jun 2007 18:21:24 -0600 (MDT)
> >Subject: Re: Forecasting conference - Armstrong paper
> >From: "Kevin Trenberth" <trenbertatXYZxyzr.edu>
> >To: j.renwickatXYZxyza.co.nz
> >Cc: "Phil Jones" <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>
> >Reply-To: trenbertatXYZxyzr.edu
> >User-Agent: SquirrelMail/1.4.8-2.el4.centos4
> >X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0
> >X-UEA-Spam-Level: /
> >X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO
> >
> >Jim
> >Yes, and I offer the attached comments on his paper. I
> haven't commented
> >on the bet he has made, but there will probably be something on
> >realclimate.com.
> >I have had a lot of exchanges with Gavin.
> >Not sure what to do with this: post it on realclimate.com is
> one option.
> >Anyway I am in the middle as a keynote speaker at this
> conference. I do
> >plan to make my ppt available after the mtg via my web site.
> >
> >Kevin
> >
> > > Hi Kevin:
> > >
> > > I se you're speaking at ISF 2007 this week. One of the
> other invited
> > > speakers, J Scott Armstrong, who is talking about public
> policy and
> > > forecasting (http://www.forecasters.org/isf/) has written
> the attached,
> > > ostensible for the ISF meeting. It's a strange document -
> even I get
> > > quoted in terms of a casual remark I made to an NZ
> journalist a few
> > > weeks ago (I should know by now there's no such thing as a casual
> > > remark). Just thought you should know this stuff, if you
> didn't already.
> > >
> > > I got the PDF off the NZ Climate Science Coalition (i.e.
> Vince Gray and
> > > co) website. By the way, I suppose you heard Augie Auer
> died suddenly a
> > > couple of weeks ago?
> > >
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > > Jim
> > > --
> > > Dr James Renwick, Science Leader, climate variability & change
> > > National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research
> > > Private Bag 14901, Wellington, NEW ZEALAND
> > > J.RenwickatXYZxyza.co.nz Ph: +64-4-3860343 Mob: +64-21-1785550
> > > http://www.niwa.co.nz Fax: +64-4-3862153 or +64-4-3860574
> > >
> >
> >
> >___________________
> >Kevin Trenberth
> >Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
> >PO Box 3000
> >Boulder CO 80307
> >ph 303 497 1318
> >http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html
>
> Prof. Phil Jones
> Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090
> School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784
> University of East Anglia
> Norwich Email p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk
> NR4 7TJ
> UK
> --------------------------------------------------------------
> --------------
>
>

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