Sunday, June 17, 2012


cc: "Phil Jones" <>
date: Sun, 24 Jun 2007 18:21:24 -0600 (MDT)
from: "Kevin Trenberth" <>
subject: Re: Forecasting conference - Armstrong paper

Yes, and I offer the attached comments on his paper. I haven't commented
on the bet he has made, but there will probably be something on
I have had a lot of exchanges with Gavin.
Not sure what to do with this: post it on is one option.
Anyway I am in the middle as a keynote speaker at this conference. I do
plan to make my ppt available after the mtg via my web site.


> Hi Kevin:
> I se you're speaking at ISF 2007 this week. One of the other invited
> speakers, J Scott Armstrong, who is talking about public policy and
> forecasting ( has written the attached,
> ostensible for the ISF meeting. It's a strange document - even I get
> quoted in terms of a casual remark I made to an NZ journalist a few
> weeks ago (I should know by now there's no such thing as a casual
> remark). Just thought you should know this stuff, if you didn't already.
> I got the PDF off the NZ Climate Science Coalition (i.e. Vince Gray and
> co) website. By the way, I suppose you heard Augie Auer died suddenly a
> couple of weeks ago?
> Cheers,
> Jim
> --
> Dr James Renwick, Science Leader, climate variability & change
> National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research
> Private Bag 14901, Wellington, NEW ZEALAND
> Ph: +64-4-3860343 Mob: +64-21-1785550
> Fax: +64-4-3862153 or +64-4-3860574

Kevin Trenberth
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
PO Box 3000
Boulder CO 80307
ph 303 497 1318

Attachment Converted: "c:\eudora\attach\ArmstrongPaper.doc"

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