cc: email@example.com, "Folland, Chris" <chris.follandatXYZxyzoffice.gov.uk>, Phil Jones <p.jonesatXYZxyz.ac.uk>, Tom Smith <Tom.Smith@noaa.gov>
date: Wed, 26 Mar 2008 09:11:03 -0400
from: "richard.w.reynolds" <Richard.W.ReynoldsatXYZxyza.gov>
subject: Re: heads up
to: "Thomas.R.Karl" <Thomas.R.KarlatXYZxyza.gov>
None of our SST products use any hydrographic data. One estimate of the
global bias of the hydrographic data is attached. The Bottle + CTD is
the most accurate and can be taken as 'truth'. The XBTs SSTs are biased
warm, even warmer than ships. The 'SSTs' from ARGO floats are at 5m.
Furthermore, the ARGO floats have given false cooling readings in the past.
Of course in our SST analyses we still have the unresolved problem of
residual satellite SST cool biases and a gradual shift from ship SSTs to
buoy SSTs where buoys are 0.14C cooler than ships. I plan to work on an
international agreement at CLIMAR-III in May to determine a consensus on
how to correct ships between 1945 and 1988 when there were no buoy data.
I do want to remind everyone that the ARGO data begins in 2002. This is
a short record. ENSO fluctuations, as you point out, can easily mask any
long term changes even if ARGO data were perfect.
Thomas.R.Karl said the following on 3/26/2008 8:51 AM:
> Mike -- check our web site -- Jan and Feb of 2008. La Nina dominated
> short term fluctuation. in my view. Note land temps. Also have spoken
> to Dick R. We know there is a cool bias in the SST because of the ARGO
> floats --- I hope Dick can begin to break out anomalies w/r to
> independent data streams.
> Michael Mann said the following on 3/26/2008 7:18 AM:
>> Hi Chris (and Tom and Phil),
>> I hope you're all doing well. Just wanted to give you a heads up on
>> something. Have you seen this?
>> apparently the contrarians are having a field day w/ this graph. My
>> understanding that it is based on using only Jan+Feb 08 and padding w/
>> that final value.
>> Surely this can't be?? Is Fred Singer now running the UK Met Office
>> Would appreciate any info you can provide,
> *Dr. Thomas R. Karl, L.H.D.*
> NOAA�s National Climatic Data Center
> Veach-Baley Federal Building
> 151 Patton Avenue
> Asheville, NC 28801-5001
> Tel: (828) 271-4476
> Fax: (828) 271-4246
> Thomas.R.KarlatXYZxyza.gov <mailto:Thomas.R.Karl@noaa.gov>
Richard W. Reynolds NOAA�s National Climatic Data Center
Phone: (828) 271-4302 151 Patton Avenue
FAX: (828) 271-4328 Asheville, NC 28801-5001